Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for August 7–11

the rate has every chance of reaching the level of 98 rubles / $ and higher in the short term

Until the end of next week, we predict trading in the USD/RUB pair in the range of 95–98 rubles/$. The ruble has consolidated above the mark of 95 rubles / $, which opens the way for further weakening. At the same time, while maintaining the current speed and level of volatility, the exchange rate has every chance of reaching the level of 98 rubles / $ and higher in the short term. Of the important events before the end of the week, we highlight the publication on Thursday of data on the consumer price index in the US on Thursday. The value at the end of June was 3% per annum. If inflation remains at the current level or decreases, market participants will assume the possibility of a pause in a further increase in the dollar rate, which will give impetus to all risky assets, including local currencies. Although this impact on the Russian currency will be minimal.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

Current exchange rates do not reflect a fair, fundamental picture

Our forecast for the ruble/dollar exchange rate for next week is 93–97 rubles/$. The national currency continues to be pressured by high domestic demand for foreign currency with insufficient inflow of it into the country, associated with a reduction in export earnings due to sanctions restrictions, geopolitics, difficulties with the repatriation of funds from a number of countries, as well as a voluntary reduction in oil exports by the Russian Federation. At the same time, oil prices are relatively stable near $85 per barrel of Brent. We continue to believe that current exchange rates do not reflect a fair, fundamental picture, in which major currencies should be 7-10% lower than current values. After the rise in oil prices, which began at the end of July, begins to be broadcast in the course with a time lag, the dollar can quickly roll back towards the level of 90 rubles.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

See the American dollar at 100 rubles. still unbelievable

The American and European currencies on the Moscow Exchange finish the week with a steady growth. The weakening of the ruble is in the spotlight, but the very fact of its weakening is not a surprise, since the balance of payments, which is currently not in favor of the ruble against the backdrop of active imports and contracting exports, is decisive for the Russian currency. Attention is riveted rather to the rate of depreciation of the ruble. At the same time, an increase in energy prices can support the ruble in the future, but this effect can manifest itself only with a lag of about a month. Apparently, August will be held in conditions of increased volatility, however, to see the US dollar at 100 rubles. still incredible. The most likely scenario is the corridor of 90–95 rubles/$.

Next week, the dollar can overcome the mark of 96 rubles

We believe that in addition to the reduced activity of exporters, the pressure on the ruble’s positions was exerted by a decrease in investor interest in risky assets. Therefore, all the key currencies of emerging economies were under pressure. At the same time, we do not rule out that additional pressure on the national currency could be exerted by speculators who win back the news background, in particular, the decision of the Ministry of Finance to start buying yuan from August 7 under the budget rule in the amount of 1.8 billion rubles. daily. There is a possibility that next week the dollar may overcome the mark of 96 rubles.