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Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst
The range of fluctuations of the dollar can be 95-100 rubles.
The limited supply of foreign currency from exporters continues to put pressure on the position of the national currency due to problems with the repatriation of funds and a reduction in export supplies with stable demand among importers. For example, Russia’s trade balance with China has become negative. According to our estimate, the dollar may try to go higher. However, we note a noticeable technical overheating of the US currency, so the potential for its growth, in our opinion, is still limited. In the short term, the dollar’s target fluctuation range may be 95–100 rubles.
Denis Buivolov,
analyst
Market liquidity seasonally reduced
The Russian currency remains weak, however, we see that the devaluation momentum has slowed down, which may indicate an imminent trend reversal. This should be facilitated by oil prices that have grown since the end of July, the narrowing of the price gap between Urals and Brent oil, the monetary rigidity of the Central Bank, the improvement in GDP dynamics and the stabilization of budget parameters. At the same time, it is important to emphasize that the market’s liquidity is seasonally lowered, which does not allow us to rule out testing by the dollar of new extremes closer to the psychological mark of 100 rubles/$. When approaching it, the Central Bank is likely to intervene in the situation. In addition to the weakness of the balance of payments indicators, the ruble may be pressured by a downward movement in the Russian debt market, the Russian bond index RGBI fell to its lowest levels since September 2022.
Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department
The decrease in the balance of the current account of the balance of payments continues to play against the Russian currency
Euro and dollar continue to rise on the Moscow Exchange. Potentially positive for the ruble at the moment are the news about the transfer of payments for the export of Russian agricultural products to rubles, as well as the growth in the cost of oil. However, these factors have a delayed effect. The news about the economic recovery of one of its main consumers, China, can support the demand for oil, and with it the ruble. However, deflation was announced here for the first time in the last year. Against the Russian currency, the decrease in the balance of the current account of the balance of payments continues to play.
Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department
Without the intervention of the authorities, the ruble may continue to lose ground at a moderate pace
The pressure on the ruble decreases somewhat as it approaches the level of 100 rubles/$. However, the absence of objective factors to support the ruble in the context of the neutral reaction of the authorities to the recent devaluation gives confidence to the speculative game against the Russian currency. In the meantime, data on the Russian current account for July do not indicate a catastrophe, and statistics for the second quarter were revised for the better. Russian oil prices are also growing, being at nine-month highs. Without the intervention of the authorities, the ruble may continue to lose ground at a moderate pace, while even verbal interventions in favor of the ruble could bring down speculative strategies and strengthen the ruble by 3-5%.
Polina Khvoynitskaya,
Head of Investment Strategy and Analytics
There is a decrease in the receipt of export flows with a simultaneous increase in imports.
The ruble reached the mark of 98 rubles/$ that we indicated, and a certain strengthening of the Russian currency took place. Of the important, it is worth noting that, according to the Bank of Russia, the surplus of the current account of the balance of payments of the Russian Federation in January-July amounted to $25.2 billion against $165.4 billion in January-July 2022. Thus, there is a decrease in export flows with a simultaneous increase in imports. Of the important events before the end of the week, we highlight the publication on Thursday of data on the consumer price index in the US on Thursday. The value at the end of June was 3% per annum. If inflation remains at the current level or decreases, market participants will assume the possibility of a pause in a further increase in the dollar rate, which will give impetus to all risky assets, including local currencies. Although this impact on the Russian currency will be minimal.
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