Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for April 6-7 – Finance – Kommersant

Vladimir Evstifeev,
head of analytical department

The level of 80 rubles / $ can be reached in the coming days

The ruble does not dare to conquer the line of 80 rubles/$. A significant “oversold” ruble looks “not appropriate” for Urals quotes at $60 per barrel. The reduction in the supply of yuan by the Ministry of Finance in April under the budget rule looks twofold. In itself, the decrease in the supply of foreign currency within the framework of the budget rule does not play in favor of the ruble, while a less significant gap in lost oil and gas revenues of the budget looks encouraging for the medium-term dynamics of the Russian currency. The level of 80 rubles/$ may be reached in the coming days, however, there are more and more reasons for a positive revaluation of the ruble.

It is possible to predict an increase in export earnings in the Russian Federation

Until the end of the week, we forecast trading in the range of 78.5–80 rubles/$. The ruble continues to move towards our predicted target of 80 rubles / $ for a period of one month, and so far we do not see any reversal signals. The Ministry of Finance will allocate a total amount of funds in the amount of 74.6 billion rubles for the sale of foreign currency. from April 7th to May 5th. The daily volume of foreign currency sales will amount to the equivalent of 3.7 billion rubles. This is 1.5 times less than in the previous period. Thus, it is possible to predict an increase in export earnings in the Russian Federation, which should have a positive impact on the national currency. In general, in the medium term, a more likely scenario is a certain strengthening of the ruble to the level of 78 rubles / $ against the background of the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters during the tax period, as well as profit-taking on foreign exchange positions by some market participants and shifting to long OFZs, which now offer interesting profitability and a good growth upside in the medium term.

Denis Buivolov,
analyst

There are few positives at the moment

Our forecast for the ruble against the dollar at the end of the current week is 78-80. Oil quotes slowed down growth, stopping at $84-85. At the moment, there is little positive that could be countered by the underlying factors of pressure on the Russian currency. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation in April will continue to reduce the volume of purchases of yuan within the framework of the budget rule, and in the new period it will immediately decrease by 1.5 times. At the moment, this is moderately negative for the ruble, but at the same time indicates an improvement in the situation with oil and gas revenues, which is already favorable for the national currency in the medium term.

Maxim Timoshenko,
Director of Financial Market Operations Department

The geopolitical situation continues to determine the balance of power in the currency and energy markets

As a support for the Russian ruble at the moment, rising oil prices may act against the backdrop of the OPEC + decision to reduce its production. However, this effect is largely offset by an increase in imports. Meanwhile, news about the planned reduction in daily sales of yuan by the Ministry of Finance as part of the budget rule from April 7 is not in favor of the ruble at the moment. In the zone of attention of world investors is the publication of an estimate of the March employment growth in the United States. At the same time, the US dollar is losing ground on world markets amid the release of data on a reduction in the number of open vacancies in the US, which may lead to a further acceleration of inflation here. All this is taking place against the backdrop of a global trend towards a weakening demand for risky assets. The geopolitical situation, where the degree is still not decreasing, continues to determine the balance of power in the currency and energy markets.

Egor Zhilnikov,
chief analyst

Dollar in the global arena under pressure

Trading activity in dollars with “tomorrow” settlements increased relative to Monday’s values, and the dollar-ruble pair slowed down the growth rate. The pressure on the positions of the national currency was exerted by probable delays in export flows, as well as the ongoing recovery of imports. It should be noted that the rates of friendly currencies showed a sharper growth against the ruble than the currencies of Western countries. This week, the dollar-ruble pair will remain in the range of 78-80 rubles. The dollar is under pressure in the global arena, while oil prices have risen significantly after the OPEC decision to cut its production. We expect the exchange rate correction, which is usual after active growth.