Dollar exchange rate. Forecast for April 24–28
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The ruble finished the last week with a slight strengthening of its positions. Following the results of Friday trading, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange amounted to 81.7 rubles/$, which is almost 10 kopecks. lower than the previous week’s close. The growth of imports into the country and the increased outflow of capital are still playing against the ruble, while the supply of foreign currency from exporters, who have begun to prepare for the tax period, has noticeably increased.
| Banks | Dollar exchange rate forecast (rub/$) |
|---|---|
| PSB | 81.50 |
| BCS World of Investments | 81.00-82.00 |
| Russian Standard Bank | 81.00-82.50 |
| Bank Zenith | 81.00 |
| Consensus forecast * | 81.44 |
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts’ forecasts
Ahead of the tax period, which will be as voluminous as a month earlier
The ruble reduces April losses and at the same time reduces activity in most currency pairs, which may indicate a decrease in speculative strategies. The rhetoric of the monetary and financial authorities boils down to the absence of tension with respect to the dynamics of the ruble. In turn, this allows the ruble not to continue the trend towards a rapid weakening. Ahead of the tax period, which will be as voluminous as a month earlier. We estimate the main payments until April 28 at 2.75 trillion rubles, which may be the reason for further recovery of the Russian currency.
Not in favor of the ruble, the decline in oil prices on the last day of the trading week
In favor of the Russian ruble – the upcoming peak of the tax period. Also, support for the national currency at the moment can be provided by the active establishment of new sales flows for Russian oil in addition to India and China. The focus continues to be on the current economic recovery of China as one of the most important oil importers in the world. The yuan is showing a decline. Meanwhile, the decline in oil prices on the last day of the trading week is not in favor of the ruble. Reports about the plans of the United States and the G7 countries to completely ban the export of goods to Russia are also capable of adding volatility to the ruble. Meanwhile, the US Fed is expected to tighten the monetary policy and increase interest rates more actively to cope with the current inflation.
In the absence of significant news, the Russian currency will trade in the range of 81-83 rubles / $
By the end of the week, the Russian currency has confidently consolidated in the range of 81–82 rubles/$. The negative from the decline in Brent oil prices closer to the level of $80 per barrel is leveled by expectations of the beginning of the tax period. Also, the delay by the European Union on a new package of sanctions has a positive effect on the Russian currency. As a result, we expect that in the absence of significant news, the Russian currency will trade in the range of 81-83 RUR/$ next week.
The strengthening of the ruble was restrained against the backdrop of a correction in prices on the energy market
At the end of the week, dollar trading activity with “tomorrow” settlements increased, while the dollar exchange rate returned to the average indicators of the current week. We believe that the ruble’s position was supported by the activation of exporters on the market in anticipation of the upcoming tax payments. The strengthening of the ruble was restrained against the backdrop of price corrections in the energy market. Next week, the dollar retains the potential to decline in the range of 80-82 rubles. The ruble will continue to be supported by exporters preparing for tax payments. Note that the abundance of published statistics in the US may also increase pressure on the dollar’s position in the global market. The focus of domestic investors will be the meeting of the Central Bank on April 28.
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