Dividends went to points – Newspaper Kommersant No. 199 (7400) dated 10/26/2022

The Moscow Exchange Index closed above 2,100 points after a month-long break. In four days of continuous growth, it added almost 8%. This is facilitated by hopes for the intensification of negotiations on the Ukrainian conflict, as well as expectations of record dividends from Gazprom entering the market. Market participants admit that dividend payments of commodity issuers can return the index to the level of 2200 points, provided that the geopolitical background does not worsen.

The bull market on the Russian stock market continues for the fourth day in a row: on October 25, the Moscow Exchange index rose above 2,100 points after a month-long break. As a result of trading, it reached 2130.65 points, adding 3.2% per day. The RTS dollar index rose by 2.7% to 1090.96 points, the highest since October 5. Since the middle of last week, Russian indices have added 7.7-8%.

The recovery of the market is facilitated by signals received in recent days about a possible intensification of negotiations within the framework of the Ukrainian conflict and the easing of sanctions. On Monday The Washington Post reported that 30 representatives of the left wing of the Democratic Party in the US Congress addressed a letter to the White House administration about the need for more active diplomatic efforts to enter into direct negotiations between Washington and Moscow to achieve peace. On the same day, it became known that since February, the Dutch authorities have issued 91 permits for exemption from the EU sanctions against Russia.

“It is difficult to say how these undertakings will be crowned, but positive news gives a powerful impetus to the stock market,” says Natalia Malykh, head of the Finam shares analysis department.

The market is additionally supported by the expectations of Gazprom’s record dividends on investors’ accounts. At the end of September, shareholders approved the payment of interim dividends for the first half of 2022 in the amount of RUB 1.208 trillion. (51.03 rubles per share). Minority shareholders of the company account for about half of the payments, that is, more than 600 billion rubles. However, more than half of this amount will be blocked in type C accounts held by non-residents. Therefore, Viktor Tunev, chief analyst at Ingosstrakh Investments Management Company, believes that only 200-250 billion rubles. will be available for reinvestment. “Up to half of this amount, or 100 billion rubles, will be immediately reinvested in the stock market, and the rest will go to other asset classes or will be invested later,” Mr. Tunev believes.

Nominee holders and professional participants received Gazprom’s dividends until October 24, and from October 25 they began to flow to clients’ brokerage accounts. Trades are influenced, rather, by expectations of reinvestment of these funds, market participants believe. According to Vasily Karpunin, head of the Information and Analytical Content Department at BCS Mir Investments, most of the funds will be transferred to customers within two to three days. “If you look at the trading volumes for the most liquid securities, we can say that they are close to the average values ​​of the previous days, respectively, the observed growth may largely be due to hopes for a continuation of the bullish market dynamics, rather than the actual inflow of new funds,” notes Analyst of IC “Veles Capital” Elena Kozhukhova. On Tuesday, the trading volume reached 43 billion rubles, which is higher than in the previous two weeks, but comparable to the values ​​at the beginning of the month.

The dividend support factor may persist until mid-November. In the coming weeks, investors will receive dividends from NOVATEK, PhosAgro and Tatneft. This will give the market another 70 billion rubles. on free float, Viktor Tunev estimates.

At the same time, Vasily Karpunin believes that a significant part of investors are not inclined to reinvest dividends in Gazprom shares against the backdrop of uncertainty with gas supplies to the EU and prices for it. “In the summer of 2023, payments may be below 10 rubles. per share, taking into account the excess tax in the amount of 1.2 trillion rubles, which must be paid in the second half of the year,” he notes.

But in the absence of an improvement in the geopolitical background, the recovery in the market will be unstable, portfolio managers say. “The difficult situation in geopolitics, the growing sanctions burden, extremely high volatility in the energy markets and the growth of the tax burden continue to put pressure on the market in the fundamental plane,” said Konstantin Asaturov, Managing Director of the Equity Department of Sistema Capital Management Company. Nevertheless, Mr. Karpunin does not exclude the rise of the Moscow Exchange index to 2200-2250 points.

Vitaly Gaidaev