Dividends – go ahead – Finance – Kommersant

The last summer month turned out to be quite successful for the collective investment market. Funds of the broad market of Russian stocks provided the highest profit. Mutual funds with securities of foreign issuers turned out to be outsiders, which suffered due to a drop in risk appetite on world markets against the backdrop of tough statements by Fed representatives. Portfolio managers expect further growth of the Russian stock market against the backdrop of companies returning to the practice of paying dividends.

Modest, but with a plus

August turned out to be quite a successful month in terms of mutual fund management results, although the results were slightly lower than those of July. According to Investfunds, last month, out of 112 large retail funds (OPEIFs and BPIFs with assets over 500 million rubles), 90 funds brought income to shareholders. However, unlike in July, no fund delivered double-digit returns in August. According to Kommersant’s estimates, the top 30 funds brought shareholders a profit of 5–9.7%.

Among the growth leaders were the outsiders of recent months – mutual funds focused on Russian stocks. At the end of August, the Moscow Exchange index, after a two-month break, consolidated above the level of 2400 points, having added almost 8.5% over the month. The index rose stronger in March, when it added 9.5% against the backdrop of rush demand after a month of market downtime.

The long-awaited Gazprom

The main positive impact on the market came from corporate news and the announcement of dividends. In the middle of the month, the boards of directors of Tatneft and PhosAgro announced interim dividends for 2022, and at the end of the month, Gazprom announced dividends for the first half of the year in the amount of 51.03 rubles. per share.

“Gazprom’s dividends led to a significant revaluation of the company’s shares and had a positive impact on investors’ expectations regarding future dividends of large companies,” said Anton Kravchenko, head of the share management department at Pervaya Management Company.

Sectoral funds focused on commodity companies lagged behind the leaders a little. For a month they brought income in the amount of 4-6%. The best results were shown by the funds, in the portfolio of which shares of oil and gas companies prevailed. Such papers benefited from declared dividends, as well as from rising commodity prices. In August, the cost of Urals oil rose above $85 per barrel, adding 12% since the beginning of the month. As a result, the spread with North Sea Brent narrowed to 17%, while in April-July it was 25-32%. “Forecasts for the future growth of global demand in the updated estimates of the IEA and OPEC have not changed significantly, the probability of maintaining a deficit in the market next year is high. At the same time, oil of Russian origin finds buyers in new markets,” says Irina Prokhorova, an analyst at Otkritie Management Company.

Strict Fed

Last month’s outsiders were the July record holders – funds focused on investing in foreign securities. According to Investfunds, shares of such mutual funds lost 2.5-7.5% in price. At the beginning of the month, positive sentiment prevailed on the global market amid a good reporting season, but the conference in Jackson Hall sobered everyone up, and by the end of the month, the leading US indices fell by 4-5.5%. “Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the regulator’s desire to keep the rate high to reduce inflation, which turned into a sell-off in the market. Investors continue to pay increased attention to the actions of the regulator and expect greater clarity regarding further changes in monetary policy,” said Eduard Kharin, head of the directorate for work with shares of Alfa Capital Management Company.

New Year’s Eve calculation

Portfolio managers are counting on continued growth of the Russian market. This will be facilitated by high prices for raw materials, as well as significant amounts of dividends coming to the market. According to analysts of Ingosstrakh Investments Management Company, the total amount of dividends in the fourth quarter may exceed 1.5 trillion rubles, of which up to 0.5 trillion rubles. received by minority shareholders.

“In conditions of limited liquidity of the current market, the reinvestment of a significant amount may lead to a revaluation of the market,” notes Anton Kravchenko.

In his opinion, the potential of Russian shares, calculated from fair prices using the DCF method, is about 40% by the end of 2023. Irina Prokhorova does not rule out that by the end of the year the target level for the Moscow Exchange index will reach 3,000 points. “On the horizon of several years, the Russian stock market has multiple growth potential,” says Ms. Prokhorova.

Market volatility may increase towards the end of autumn, ahead of the start of the embargo on Russian oil in Europe, which will come into force on December 5. Already in November, analysts believe, a decline in European oil imports is not ruled out. “The oil embargo should not affect the sales of oil companies, since they are already in the process of changing markets. We expect that the main markets will be Asian, while the Middle East supplies will go to the EU,” notes Eduard Kharin.

Vitaly Gaidaev