Dividend repair of failure – Finance – Kommersant

October turned out to be successful for all categories of mutual investment funds (UIFs). The best dynamics was shown by the funds focused on Russian stocks, which were actively recovering after the September failure. Profits were brought to investors and bond funds. The market was supported by the completion of mobilization, as well as large-scale dividend payments, primarily from Gazprom. However, further recovery in the stock market will be constrained by high geopolitical risks and economic downturn, including on a global scale.

autumn rise

October has been a very successful month for portfolio managers. According to Investfunds, all 117 large retail funds (with assets over 500 million rubles) showed an increase in the value of the share. At the same time, 54 funds provided double-digit returns, the top 5 mutual funds showed returns of 20–24%. Thus, managers were able to partially compensate for the losses of the previous month. In September losses on 85 large funds exceeded 10%, and the worst 18 depreciated investments of shareholders by 20-28%.

Among the growth leaders were the previous month’s outsiders – mutual funds focused on Russian stocks, although the beginning of the month did not bode well for this segment. On the eve of the closing of the Gazprom shareholder register for dividends, which took place on October 11, the Moscow Exchange index dropped to 1916 points, losing more than 5% in two days. However, in the following days, the index was able not only to restore the lost positions, but also compensated for part of the September losses. At the end of the month, the index stopped at 2166.61 points, which is 10.6% higher than the value of the end of September.

The recovery of quotations was facilitated by the reduction of geopolitical risks, including against the backdrop of the completion of partial mobilization in the country, market participants believe. In addition to this, dividends from Gazprom and other large companies that could reinvest in securities began to flow into investors’ accounts. According to Konstantin Asaturov, Managing Director of Sistema Capital’s equity department, the OPEC+ decision to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day, as well as the discussion of creating a gas hub in Turkey, which could increase Russian gas supplies, was important for the market. to Europe in the medium term.

Inflation to the rescue

In such circumstances, the industry funds focused on commodity companies were the biggest winners. According to Investfunds, the value of shares of such funds increased by 16-24% in October. A comparable income was brought to shareholders by funds of companies in the consumer sector and the electric power industry, whose shares grew by 16-21% and 20% over the month, respectively. “Companies in the consumer sector reported strongly for the third quarter, and investment demand for them, as a good defensive asset, has grown significantly,” said Irina Prokhorova, portfolio manager at Otkritie Management Company. In general, the shares of companies in the consumer sector, the power industry are the beneficiaries of the effect of increased inflation. “On the one hand, there was a decrease in attendance and the number of checks, on the other hand, the average check of purchases has noticeably increased. In the electricity sector, tariffs are periodically indexed. So, in 2022, tariffs for certain housing and communal services will be increased for the second time in a year, ”says Anton Kravchenko, head of the share management department at Pervaya Management Company.

The past month has been quite successful for bond funds as well. According to InvestFunds, such mutual funds showed an increase in the value of the share up to 6%, fully compensating for the losses of the previous day.

In October, the RUCBITR corporate bond index of the Moscow Exchange rose by almost 4% to 490 points. The government bond index RGBITR rose over the reporting period by 4.2% to 603 points. Despite the stronger growth of the government securities index, corporate bond funds became the leaders of growth among mutual funds. According to Alfa Capital portfolio manager Yevgeny Zhornist, in September many corporate bonds fell more than government bonds, which led to the expansion of yield spreads. And in October, against the backdrop of improved sentiment, this difference began to decline rapidly. “It was also possible to earn a lot on long OFZs: the longer the duration, the stronger the recovery of securities,” notes Mr. Zhornist.

Geopolitical containment

Until the end of the year, according to portfolio managers, the situation on the Russian market will largely be determined by the geopolitical situation. According to Konstantin Asaturov, the strengthening of sanctions amid the deteriorating macroeconomic situation both within the country and in other countries, as well as the increased tax burden on key sectors of the Russian economy, should have a negative impact on companies’ quarterly reports.

However, in the absence of an increase in geopolitical risks, with “stable energy prices and with the support of the reinvestment of dividends from oil and gas companies, the Moscow Exchange index can demonstrate moderate growth,” Anton Kravchenko believes. In such a situation, portfolio managers are waiting for further recovery in the debt market. “The quotes are still in a rather depressed state. If the news background normalizes, prices will continue to recover,” Evgeny Zhornist believes.

Vitaly Gaidaev