Dividend payout – Finance – Kommersant

By the end of the year, an increasing number of issuers who previously refused to pay dividends are returning to this practice. While this decision was expected in the case of LUKOIL, NLMK’s intentions came as a complete surprise to the market. But since the size of the payout turned out to be insignificant, its impact on the market was also small. Analysts do not exclude that next year an increasing number of issuers will return to paying dividends, which will be facilitated by resolving the issue with foreign shareholders. However, the main payments, as before, will come from oil and gas companies.

Deferred payment

This month, several companies that had previously postponed the payment of dividends for 2021 decided to please investors. On December 5, LUKOIL shareholders at an extraordinary meeting (EGM) approved dividends (.pdf) following the results of nine months in the amount of 256 rubles. per share, as well as undistributed dividends for the second half of 2021 in the amount of RUB 537. As a result, investors who owned the company’s shares on December 21 (the closing date of the register) will receive 793 rubles. (dividend yield at the time of the EGM decision was 17.3%). In May, the board of directors recommended postponing the payment of dividends for 2021, which was approved by shareholders in June.

Due to the fact that the issuer did not rule out a return to the issue of paying dividends, as well as against the backdrop of high oil prices, analysts expected that payments would be high. Aleksey Kokin, Chief Analyst for the Oil and Gas Sector at Otkritie Investments, estimated the size of the final dividend for 2021 and interim for 2022 at 832 rubles. “There are no reports for 2022, but it can be assumed that the company went to a temporary decrease in the payout ratio due to the unstable situation on the market,” said Dmitry Puchkarev, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments.

Unsettled income

At the same time, NLMK’s decision to return to the practice of paying dividends was unexpected for the market. Ferrous metallurgy companies were among the most affected due to European sanctions, a strong strengthening of the ruble, which led to a massive refusal to pay dividends.

Moreover, none of the analysts expected issuers to return to the practice of paying dividends this year and in 2023.

So everyone was surprised. decision Board of Directors of NLMK December 12 to recommend to shareholders to consider the payment of dividends for 9 months of 2022 in the amount of 2.6 rubles. per share (dividend yield at the time of the decision of the Board of Directors – 2.4%). “The amount of payments does not strike the imagination, however, in principle, we did not count on any payments from domestic steelmakers this year. In addition, there was no news earlier that the majority stake of Vladimir Lisin was transferred to a friendly jurisdiction (previously it was listed in the Cypriot Fletcher Group Holdings Limited) and receiving dividends for him is possible in principle, ”said analysts at Otkrytie Investments.

According to Dmitry Puchkarev, the decision of the Board of Directors to return to the payment of dividends could be due to the stable position of the company. According to the results of the third quarter, the plant’s sales increased by 5% compared to the same period in 2021, to 4.3 million tons due to the recovery in demand in the Russian Federation.

“NLMK, despite the new EU sanctions package, remains one of the strongest securities in the Russian sector of the iron and steel industry,” notes Mr. Puchkarev.

But due to the fact that the amount of payments turned out to be 16 times less than the expected dividends for 2021, this decision had a weak impact on the value of shares, which grew by only 1.5% last week, to 108 rubles.

new bountiful year

This year, Russian issuers have already paid dividends in the amount of more than 1.5 trillion rubles. The next large portion of payments, says Viktor Tunev, chief analyst at Ingosstrakh Investments Management Company, will be in January 2023 and will amount to 1.2 trillion rubles. In this case, minority shareholders will receive only 366 billion rubles, most of which will be paid by LUKOIL (309 billion rubles). “More than half of the amount can go to type C accounts and to the budget. RUB 100–150 billion will go to the accounts of Russian investors on the Moscow Stock Exchange and can be reinvested in the market,” says Mr. Tunev.

In 2023, according to Viktor Tunev, Russian joint-stock companies can approve dividends in the amount of more than 3 trillion rubles, including 1.1 trillion rubles to minority shareholders. “Business, especially in Russia, is used to adapting to any situations and external challenges. One of the deterrents to dividend activity may be the presence of foreign shareholders. Companies will solve this problem one way or another and return to payments,” says Alexander Tsyganov, director of the investment and corporate business department at Tsifra Broker.

At the same time, the main payments, as in 2022, are expected from oil and gas companies.

According to Viktor Tunev, the main payments should be expected from LUKOIL, Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, Rosneft, NOVATEK, Sberbank, MMC Norilsk Nickel and PhosAgro. “It is worth waiting for payments from electric power companies,” Alexander Tsyganov believes.

Vitaly Gaidaev