Developers hid in a pit
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Since the beginning of 2023, almost half as many new housing construction projects have started across Russia as in previous periods. The reason is a serious drop in demand, which has not yet been supported even by extending preferential mortgages by the authorities. The volume of its issuance in January decreased four times. At least until the end of the year, the residential real estate segment will exist in the face of declining demand, market participants believe.
In January, developers across the country received 192 building permits (BCPs) for a total of 2.51 million square meters. m of housing, calculated “Kommersant” on the basis of data from a single information system “Nash.Dom.RF”. This indicator, which gives an idea of the number of new projects brought to the market, turned out to be almost half as much as in the same period of 2021-2022. The volume of space under construction, for which permits were obtained in January, decreased by more than 19% both year-on-year and compared to the same month in 2021.
From the data of “Nash.Dom.RF” it follows that the reduction of new projects affected Siberia, the Far East and the Volga region. In the large markets of the Moscow region, St. Petersburg, the Leningrad region, there is an increase of 6-8%. The Nash.Dom.RF database does not reflect data for Moscow, despite the large market capacity: in 2022, housing in new buildings in the capital was sold for 1.26 trillion rubles. NDV Supermarket Real Estate reported that in January, Moscow developers put up for sale 412,000 sq. m. m at the zero construction cycle (this is possible immediately after receiving the RNS), which is also half as much year on year. Metrium notes that 10.1 thousand apartments were sold in January, or 14.2% of the total share of housing sold in the primary housing market, which is 16.1 percentage points (pp) less than in 2022 .
Traditionally, housing at the stage of excavation costs 10-15% cheaper than an apartment in an almost completed building, said Irina Dobrokhotova, chairman of the board of directors of Best Novostroy. “At the height of the rush demand in 2021, developers even arranged closed bookings for such lots, which will now have to be forgotten,” she adds. Samolet Group Commercial Director Kirill Khrapov explains the reduction in the number of new projects by a decrease in demand.
Developers began to slow down their activity in the development of new projects in the fall of 2022, when demand dropped to the maximum, says Tatyana Kalyuzhnova, Marketing Director of IQ Estate. Then the developers hoped that he would recover in early 2023 after the extension of the preferential mortgage. But these calculations did not come true, despite the prolongation of the program for a year with an increase in the current rate by 1 percentage point, up to 8%. According to the Central Bank, loans for 134 billion rubles were issued in January under preferential state programs (including mortgages at 8%, family and Far Eastern), which is three times less than in December. It was for mortgages at 8% in January that the decrease was four times, to 67 billion rubles.
It is not worth expecting a recovery in demand at least until the end of the year, Denis Bobkov, head of marketing and analytics at Asterus, warns. In the event of a reduction in the number of new projects throughout the year, a serious reduction in the commissioning of housing across the country in 2026-2027 can be expected, Ms. Dobrokhotova believes.
But so far, developers are less concerned about this than the risks of further overstocking of the market, which have arisen due to the same drop in demand. According to Infoline, at the end of 2022, apartments in various stages of completion with a total area of 70 million square meters remained unsold throughout the country. m, or 66% of the total volume of housing sold in the primary market. These are mainly residential complexes, the construction of which began after the first phase of the pandemic, explains the founder of the Rodina group, Vladimir Shchekin. The volume of unsold housing, according to sales director of “Etazhy” Sergey Zaitsev, may further increase if the launch of more new projects on the market is “artificially regulated.”
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