Developers are not rescued by demand – Kommersant

The decline in demand for housing and the increase in the share of discounts had a significant impact on the revenue of developers in the largest regions. According to the results of the first quarter of this year, in the Moscow region, the indicator decreased by 40%, and in Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region – by 25-32% year-on-year. Experts expect the recovery of sales from developers no earlier than the summer of 2024, provided there are no new shocks for the market.

The revenue of developers from the sale of housing in the largest Russian regions in the first quarter of 2023 significantly decreased year-on-year, calculated in Dataflat.ru. The largest decline – by 40%, to 79.9 billion rubles – was recorded by analysts in the Moscow region. In St. Petersburg, the indicator decreased by 32%, to 91.1 billion rubles, in the Leningrad Region – by 29%, to 25.9 billion rubles, in Moscow – by 25%, to 297.9 billion rubles, follows from Dataflat.ru calculations.

The loss of the main share of revenue is explained by the decrease in demand for housing. According to bnMap.pro, in January-March 2023 in Moscow, the number of purchases of apartments in new buildings decreased by 32%, to 23.8 thousand lots year-on-year. In the Moscow region, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region, the number of transactions decreased by 32-52%, depending on the region.

The founder of Best Novostroy, Irina Dobrokhotova, explains the decline in demand by the high base effect. According to her, in the first quarter of 2022, in response to external events in politics and the economy, Russians were in a hurry to invest in the purchase of new buildings so as not to lose money. And many investors then chose the Moscow region because of lower prices than in Moscow, the expert adds.

In addition, the revenue of developers was affected by the expansion of the offer of housing with discounts. According to Dataflat.ru, in February 2023, in new buildings in Moscow, the share of lots offered for sale at a discount reached 36% of the total supply. A year earlier, only 10% of lots were offered at a discount.

Alexander Pypin, CEO of Dataflat.ru, also explains the more noticeable drop in revenues of developers near Moscow by the increased competition between regional lots with mass construction of former industrial zones and wastelands of Moscow. The capital also launched a program for the integrated development of territories, covering more than 314 hectares, where it is planned to build housing, social and commercial real estate. Kirill Kholopik, head of the Unified Resource of Developers portal, adds that some buyers instead of the Moscow region began to choose new buildings in New Moscow, where the volume of supply is growing noticeably. According to BnMap.pro, in March 2023, 18 thousand lots in new buildings were exhibited in New Moscow, which is 57% more than a year earlier.

In the Moscow region, all five largest developers in terms of sales faced a drop in revenue. Most seriously in the first quarter of 2023, the revenue decreased at Ingrad Group – by 62%, to 2.4 billion rubles. year-on-year, according to Dataflat.ru calculations. At Granel Group, according to analysts, revenue from the sale of housing in the Moscow region decreased by 53%, to 8 billion rubles, at PIK Group – by 46%, to 14.1 billion rubles, FSK Group – by 30%, to RUB 7.6 billion, Samolet Group — by 25%, to RUB 24.8 billion. FGC, Granel and Ingrad declined to comment. Samolet and PIK Kommersant did not respond.

On the other hand, Samolet, which began to build more actively in Moscow, increased sales in the capital’s market. According to Dataflat.ru, according to the results of the first quarter of 2023, Samolet increased its revenue in Moscow by 44%, to 13.7 billion rubles. year by year. The group was the only major developer to show an increase in sales in the capital. According to Dataflat.ru, Donstroy’s revenue here decreased by 65%, to 14.4 billion rubles, A101 – by 34%, to 13.9 billion rubles, FGC’s – by 11%, to 14.2 billion rubles ., PIK – by 9%, to 94.4 billion rubles. year by year. Donstroy and A101 also did not provide comments. Alexander Pypin explains the result of the “Airplane” by the passion for the number of projects in Moscow. According to Nash.Dom.RF, in March 2023, the volume of current construction of the Samolet Group of Companies in the city reached 751 thousand square meters. m, which is 52% more than a year earlier.

Kirill Kholopik believes that the bottom of the drop in revenue for housing developers can already be passed. If there are no new shocks for the market, a full recovery of sales of new buildings to the level of the pre-crisis 2021 will occur no later than the second half of 2024, he predicts. Irina Dobrokhotova believes that the process of stabilizing demand for housing has already begun.

Daria Andrianova