Despite the increase in production, stock prices for gasoline continue to rise

According to Kommersant’s data, in June, against the background of the completion of repairs at refineries, oil companies increased gasoline production by 5%. At the same time, fuel shipments to the domestic market are growing more slowly and still lag behind the plan by 7.5%, while official gasoline exports in June were 54% higher than a year ago. Despite requests from regulators to increase fuel sales, price tensions remain on the market, and Kommersant’s interlocutors in the industry talk about a lack of volumes, including due to gray exports. The FAS says it is discussing measures to tighten regulation of shipments abroad.

Russian oil companies increased gasoline production over the 20 days of June by almost 5% compared to the average for May, up to 111.9 thousand tons per day, Kommersant sources familiar with the situation said. Despite this, fuel shipments to the domestic market grew at a slower pace (slightly more than 3%) and amounted to 104.3 thousand tons per day, which is 7.5% lower than both the planned figures and the level of June 2022. If in early June, following the recommendations of the Ministry of Energy, the oil companies sharply reduced the export of gasoline, then in the second half of the month, the volume of exports began to grow again. On average, in June, oil companies exported 7.9 thousand tons per day, which is about 26% lower than the average daily values ​​in May, but 53% higher than in June 2022.

The increase in gasoline production in Russia occurs in the context of the completion of repairs at refineries (see. “Kommersant” dated May 30). In the second half of June, fuel production was 114-124 thousand tons per day. “Oil companies continue to reduce exports even now. So, in June, gasoline exports are already 30% lower compared to May. We will continue to recommend that companies adhere to this policy so that this oil product goes to the exchange to the maximum, ”said Roman Kabakov, deputy head of the Department of the Ministry of Energy on June 22.

However, despite the increase in gasoline production, the fuel market remains tense. This week, the price of gasoline on the SPIMEX exchange resumed its growth.

Thus, AI-92 and AI-95 rose in price on the stock exchange by 2.3% and 1.2%, to 58.7 thousand rubles. and 65.8 thousand rubles. per ton, respectively. At the end of last week, fuel prices began to decline after the FAS threatened oil companies with antimonopoly cases if they did not increase sales on the stock exchange. However, the effect of verbal interventions lasted only a few days.

At FAS June 22 suggested to increase the mandatory standards for the sale of gasoline on the stock exchange from 12% to 13% of production. Also, the FAS said that they were discussing “tightening the criteria for exporting fuel” and began “to study the actions of some vertically integrated oil companies for compliance with antitrust requirements.”

Kommersant’s interlocutors note that, despite the restoration of production after refinery repairs, as well as warnings from the Federal Antimonopoly Service, there is still a shortage of goods, and gasoline sales on the stock exchange are still unable to meet current demand.

According to two Kommersant sources, one of the key reasons for the shortage of goods is the presence of gray exports, in which traders buy gasoline on the stock exchange and then unofficially export it: a high netback makes such operations profitable, despite the payment of excise duty and the absence of a VAT refund.

According to Kommersant’s interlocutors, the current gasoline reserves of more than 1.8 million tons at oil depots and refineries, which include, among other things, the travel resource, can no longer be considered an objective indicator of a fuel surplus.

A significant increase in gasoline prices on the stock exchange is taking place against the backdrop of a struggle between the Ministry of Finance and the oil industry over the adjustment of subsidies for oil refining – damper payments. Initially, the Ministry of Finance planned twice, for 30 billion rubles. per month, to reduce subsidies from July, but it was not possible to agree on this. The ministry now plans to adjust the damper from autumn. A number of Kommersant’s interlocutors in the industry believe that a significant increase in prices on the stock exchange can be explained by the desire of the oil industry to demonstrate what a decrease in the damper can lead to.

The increase in wholesale prices for gasoline led to the fact that in June the net sales margin of AI-95 and AI-92 at gas stations became negative. This forces gas station operators to raise retail prices. So far, the price of gasoline is growing in line with inflation, having increased since the beginning of the year, according to Rosstat, by 1.9% with inflation of 2.6%. The Ministry of Energy does not expect a significant increase in prices at filling stations, believing that “the margin of filling stations remains at a sufficient level to prevent an increase in fuel prices for the end consumer while maintaining operations.”

Dmitry Kozlov