Descending game – Newspaper Kommersant No. 162 (7363) of 09/05/2022
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The decrease in trading activity on the stock market had a negative impact on the financial performance of brokers. At the same time, the rate of influx of customers decreased, and their preferences became more conservative. Market participants believe that this trend will continue for some time. However, there are a number of measures that could support the market, such as reorientation to new jurisdictions, distribution of new products, and tax incentives for investors and issuers.
According to the Bank of Russia, brokers’ revenue from core services and commission income in the second quarter amounted to only 23.47 billion rubles, the lowest since the third quarter of 2020. This is 12.5% lower than the previous quarter and 18.1% lower than a year ago. At the same time, the assets of brokerage companies decreased to 1.02 trillion rubles, the lowest value since the beginning of 2020.
According to Anna Avakimyan, chief analyst at RegBlock, due to the lack of steady growth in the stock market in the second quarter, brokers’ incomes decreased by 15-25% compared to the corresponding period of 2021. The trading volumes of most brokers have decreased, this has affected the income of companies, Dmitry Lesnov, head of the Finam client service development department, also points out.
Most of the time in the second quarter, the Moscow Exchange index was in a narrow range – 2200-2400 points. Moreover, at the very end of the reporting period, it collapsed to the lower limit against the backdrop of the refusal of Gazprom shareholders to pay annual dividends (see Kommersant dated July 1).
At the same time, the volume of exchange transactions in the stock, currency and derivatives markets turned out to be minimal over the past three years, yielding 1.3–1.9 times to the indicators of previous quarters. At the same time, assets on the accounts of individuals decreased: by the middle of the year they reached 1.85 trillion rubles, which is 14% lower than a year ago.
Investor preferences in terms of instruments have changed significantly. Thus, over the quarter, the share of bonds of foreign issuers (from 13% to 8%) and foreign shares (from 15% to 12%) in the structure of assets of resident individuals decreased, and the share of shares of residents increased (from 24% to 28%) and bonds credit institutions (from 15% to 17%). The activity of private investors also decreased – the share of clients who made at least one transaction fell to the values of 2019.
When there is no volatility, clients are mostly in a wait-and-see position. Activity appears on interesting events and news, Alfa-Bank noted. Clients have become more cautious, they use conservative instruments more, increasing the share of OFZs and bonds of reliable largest companies, they use leveraged trading to a lesser extent, Mr. Lesnov points out.
Naturally, client interest is directed more towards Russian assets and soft currencies – and this vector is likely to remain in the near future, Igor Pimonov, head of the department of the Internet broker BCS World of Investments, believes.
However, as political turbulence stabilizes, indicators of customer activity and active growth in the number of customers will recover, market participants believe. Also, according to Dmitry Lesnov, interest in old instruments will return. Alfa-Bank expects a gradual reorientation to other foreign markets. “We already have Hong Kong, we are waiting for China, India and other countries behind it,” the bank noted.
To support the market, according to Kommersant’s interlocutors, a set of measures is required. Among them are facilitating access to it for investors from friendly countries, developing a set of measures to support issuers participating in import substitution, developing and distributing new investment products for retail investors with capital protection or issuing equity instruments with the functions of debt securities, Anna Avakimyan believes. The market can also be strongly supported by dividend payments by Russian companies and the placement of corporate debt in the Russian Federation in different currencies at interesting rates, Mr. Pimonov believes.
However, according to Dmitry Lesnov, this will require stabilization of the political and economic situation, as well as active measures to support investors from the regulator: tax changes, liberalization, lower requirements for investors.
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