Deputy General Director of Russian Railways Alexey Shilo on cargo transportation along the Eastern range

Although at the end of 2023 the carrying capacity of the BAM and Trans-Siberian Railways reached 173 million tons, in fact 150.5 million tons were transported through the Volochaevka-Komsomolsk-on-Amur control section. The deputy general director of Russian Railways OJSC told Kommersant about the reasons why the actual volume of traffic lags behind the nominal figure Alexey Shilo.

— How can one explain the discrepancy between the nominal carrying capacity of the BAM and Trans-Siberian Railways and the actual volume of traffic?

— Now JSC Russian Railways is working on the second stage of development of the Eastern training ground. By the end of 2022, we ensured a carrying capacity of 158 million tons. This is the maximum volume of cargo that the new infrastructure can pass through the Volochaevka-Komsomolsk-on-Amur control section. The section is not rails and sleepers, but a conditional line that denotes the “pipe diameter” – the power of the railway in a particular location. You need to understand that the BAM and Trans-Siberian Railway are linear infrastructure that extends for thousands of kilometers, and not all cargo goes along their entire length from end to end.

Therefore, in 2022, 148.8 million tons were transported specifically through the section. In general, in the eastern direction in all types of communication – more than 275 million tons.

— And if we talk about 2023?

— Based on the results of 2023, we achieved a cross-sectional carrying capacity of 173 million tons. Since construction work continues throughout the year, this capacity is formed gradually, and it can only be fully used starting next year. And then, provided that we had completely completed the construction and stopped providing “windows” for this and importing materials.

According to the project passport in 2023, it was envisaged that the carrying capacity would develop quarterly and on average for the year could reach 159.8 million tons. Carrying capacity is not the planned physical volume of freight traffic, but a possibility under certain, one might say ideal, conditions. Physically, we transported 150.5 million tons of cargo through the Komsomolsk-on-Amur-Volochaevka section in 2023.

— What factors influenced the dynamics of transportation?

— About 5 million tons of cargo, at the request of shippers, was redirected to the land crossings of Zabaikalsk and Naushki. That is, the clients got what they wanted, but this cargo did not reach the measuring section, which is located in the very east of the Eastern range and was not counted. That is, the actual filling of the created carrying capacity directly depends on specific cargo correspondence, on whether those tons reach the control section, and are not redeemed earlier, for example, going for export through closer border crossings. For example, in Zabaikalsk, exports increased by more than 40% by 2022, in total almost 20 million tons of cargo were transferred!

About 4 million losses are due to the failure of the early commissioning of infrastructure facilities due to a number of emergency situations, including typhoons Hanun and Lan, which affected the progress of construction work on the Far Eastern road, as well as a dam break on the Kholodnaya River in Buryatia and an accident in the Severomuisky tunnel. Let me explain: in 2023, we, together with our builders, set ourselves the task of accelerating the commissioning of 20 infrastructure facilities, including second tracks and stations, work on which was to be completed in December 2023. Based on these deadlines, we counted on additional opportunities. But in fact, due to the emergency, according to the results of the third quarter, only nine out of 20 objects were open to traffic earlier than planned.

More than 4 million tons will be attributed to extreme weather conditions that worsen the operating conditions of the entire supply chain. Mainly losses occurred in the ports of Posyet and Vanino. The main reason for this is the arrival of cargo in a frozen state. Despite repeated proposals from Russian Railways on the need to refine the rules for the transportation of frozen goods, the issue remains unresolved.

About 2 million tons were lost due to systemic problems in organizing the maintenance of the locomotive fleet due to the fault of service companies. Losses in this area turned out to be significantly higher than predicted. We see the objective component of this situation – colleagues have to solve several big problems at once: this includes ensuring import substitution for existing equipment, and certain difficulties with staffing with qualified personnel. Today, a paradoxical situation has arisen: there is a record number of locomotives on the network, but it is not yet possible to repair and service them on time – therefore, there are fewer “combat” units than normal.

Another factor that not everyone wants to take into account. The carrying capacity of the railways of the Eastern range was previously calculated based on the passage of heavy trains, 7100 tons, consisting of cars with an increased axle load. When calculating the planned volumes of transportation in the passport for the second stage of development of the Eastern range, the share for the passage of “light” container cargo was calculated to be lower than what we transport today. In 2023, in our project passport, the share of container cargo was determined to be 7.4%, and we transported 8.5%. I would like to remind you that the country’s leadership has placed container transportation under special control since 2022. Thanks to our partners – owners of operator companies, and the flexibility they showed in attracting a fleet of gondola cars for the removal of containers, Russian Railways OJSC fully fulfilled the assigned tasks and continues to do so now. Moreover, our interaction brought outstanding results – in 2023, a record almost 1 million TEU was exported from the Far East for the first time. But it is important to understand: in order to work like this, we had to bring at least 23 container trains to the ports every day. And each container train is approximately three times lighter than a standard coal train.

— How much do those cargoes that do not reach it affect the calculation of cargo flow at the control section?

— JSC Russian Railways transports according to temporary rules that determine the priority export of coal under agreements, as well as domestic transportation to the detriment of a number of export cargoes. That is, some of the cargo that travels along the Eastern range does not reach the cross-section, as they say, “according to the conditions of the task.” The load at the Eastern range is uneven: some of the cargo that goes from west to east does not reach the control section, but takes up the infrastructure and affects the overall result. Another part of the power is taken away by the cargo flow, which is formed behind the section itself. That is, we cannot pass an additional train through the section if another train is formed in its place behind this conditional portal.

For the sake of objectivity, I will say that in 2023, force majeure occurred not only at JSC Russian Railways: situations arose of non-presentation of goods by the shippers themselves, within the parameters declared by them. Market conditions have not gone away either – there has been a decrease in demand for timber cargo from Chinese consumers.

There is another reason – suboptimal supply to Russian power plants. In our country, coal for Far Eastern thermal power plants is sometimes transported five thousand kilometers away, because local coal companies are not interested in such supplies. Although they are many times closer. We transport approximately 7 million tons of this high-priority coal annually; it eats away at the export volume.

— What is the total volume of losses caused by these factors?

— I estimate the total volume of cargo losses in 2023 due to objective factors not related to the company’s work at 15 million tons.

We saw this situation and promptly took countermeasures to level out the backlog and make maximum use of transport capacity both along the control section and the entire Eastern range. Thanks to the operation of heavy freight trains, it was possible to ensure the additional transportation of 2.7 million tons of cargo. The passage of connected trains along one “thread” of the schedule made it possible to transport plus 0.7 million tons. Another 0.7 million tons came from increasing the efficiency of stations and other technological measures. In total, we were able to add more than 4 million tons of cargo.

If there were no losses, then with additional compensation measures the volume of transportation through the section could be about 165 million tons. I would like to emphasize that in 2023, JSC Russian Railways carried out transportation to the east under the conditions of a colossal amount of work on the construction and major repairs of about 1.5 thousand kilometers of tracks at the Eastern range. This required the provision of more than 60 thousand “windows” with a total duration of about 300 thousand hours. We gave our builders as much time as planned at the end of 2022.

So, if we talk about the final assessment of the efficiency of transportation along the Eastern range in 2023, then the total volume of loading in the eastern direction continues to grow significantly. In 2023, a historical maximum was reached in the transportation of goods in the eastern direction – almost 290 million tons.

— What is the forecast for 2024?

— The weighted average carrying capacity of the section in 2024 will be 173 million tons; by the end of December, Russian Railways OJSC is obliged to reach the figure of 180 million tons, which will become available from 2025. At the same time, as last year, we predict certain losses (in the amount of 2.3 million tons) due to the provision of planned “windows”. There will continue to be further growth in traffic towards stations located west of the cross-section, by 0.7 million tons (or 0.8%), exports to border crossings west of the cross-section will increase by 2.2 million tons (by 13.1%). The utilization rate of the section’s carrying capacity will be almost 94%, which is higher than last year’s parameters (92%).

Let me give you another logical argument, which for some reason is now indelicately forgotten. JSC Russian Railways has reached the development level of infrastructure up to 173 million tons at the end of 2023, but does this automatically mean that JSC Russian Railways will transport at least 173 million tons in 2024? The maximum engine power does not mean that it can always operate at the limit indicated in the passport. For example, the recently opened M-12 highway has a capacity of 40 thousand cars, but it never occurs to anyone to demand that this figure be achieved at once!

— What do you plan to do to increase the utilization of the Eastern test site infrastructure by the end of 2024?

— In 2024, almost a thousand kilometers of new tracks will have to be built and about 600 artificial structures will be introduced. This will also require a significant number of “windows” and other restrictions on train movement. That is why the weighted figure of 162.2 million tons appears. This is higher than 2023 by 7.7%, or 11.7 million tons.

To fully level out the constraining factors in transportation to the east in the future, it is necessary to make a number of decisions at the state level in terms of finalizing the regulatory framework. In particular, it is necessary to speed up work on introducing changes to the rules for transporting frozen goods, which will significantly increase export volumes in the winter months. It is also necessary to ensure that conditions are created for the conclusion of “take or pay” agreements. Their use would give shippers additional guarantees that their cargo will be accepted for transportation in the eastern direction. It is necessary to create an optimal supply system for power plants in the regions of the Far East, concentrate the fleet of freight cars with an increased axle load for operating only in the eastern direction, stabilize the work of service companies to ensure uninterrupted maintenance of the fleet within the planned parameters, and also support the proposals of some market participants to prioritize transportation in specialized terminals. According to our estimates, priority shipment to specialized terminals for coal alone will allow us to increase export volumes to the east to 2 million tons.

I want to assure that in 2024 we will fight for every ton, and Russian Railways will do everything possible to make maximum use of the capabilities of our infrastructure for the export of goods.

Interviewed by Natalya Skorlygina