Deposits fell in price in length – Newspaper Kommersant No. 166 (7367) of 09/09/2022

According to the statistics of the Central Bank, after the spring surge, banks were the fastest to reduce rates on long-term deposits. Thus, the yield on deposits for more than three years and for a period of one to three years in July decreased by almost 1 percentage point, to 7.71% and 7.4% per annum, respectively. However, experts believe that the fall in rates will slow down or even stabilize, as banks are interested in attracting stable funding. There will be no outflow either – the most conservative part of clients who are not ready for more risky alternative investments deposit funds in banks for a long time.

The Central Bank published data on average weighted rates on deposits of individuals in July. For ruble deposits, the rates ranged from 2.04% to 7.44%, depending on the term of attraction of funds. Most noticeably in a month, rates fell on long-term deposits. Thus, the rates on deposits for more than three years and for a period of one to three years decreased by almost 1 percentage point, to 7.71% and 7.4%, respectively. In the first half of August, the average maximum rate on deposits in the top 10 banks dropped to 6.8%. During the period of a sharp increase in the key rate of the Central Bank after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, in March, the average rates on ruble deposits reached almost 19%.

“In August-September, the reduction of rates continued, which reflects the dynamics of the maximum rate in the top 10 banks, and the further trajectory will be determined by the macroeconomic situation and the dynamics of the key rate,” says Mikhail Doronkin, managing director of the NKR rating agency. small limits.” At the same time, the expert clarifies, banks may well offer promotional and seasonal deposits at rates exceeding the average market level.

Rates are reduced due to a combination of factors, experts believe. “Firstly, this is a change in the key rate,” explains Yegor Krivosheya, head of the blockchain and fintech laboratory at the Skolkovo School of Management. “In response to its growth, banks raised rates to hold customer funds, now they are returning to the values ​​​​of the beginning of the year.” As for foreign currency deposits, the expert adds, “it is becoming less and less profitable for banks to deal with the dollar and the United States, as there are fewer cases of using currency in banking products and services.”

It is not worth expecting a serious outflow from deposits, Mr. Krivosheya believes. The issue of investment diversification will remain relevant: for example, a significant proportion of clients open investment products, the expert notes, a number of people pay attention to cryptocurrencies and other investment instruments that can provide higher returns. However, he emphasizes, “deposits have had their own segment and, most likely, will be for a long time to come.” “Deposits are actively used, as a rule, by the most conservative audience, which is not ready to learn new instruments, but since February, interest in alternative investment instruments has really grown,” says Alexei Tarapovsky, founder of Anderida Financial Group.

In general, experts are reluctant to make long-term forecasts. It is only clear, Mr. Tarapovsky clarifies, that long-term deposit rates will rise, as banks will seek to transfer previously short-term clients to longer placements, providing themselves with confident and predictable funding.

Polina Trifonova