Deposits attract profitability – Kommersant FM

Russians have become more active in putting money into banks. The volume of deposits of individuals in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased by almost 4.5 trillion rubles, this is a historical record, according to Central Bank statistics. Then in January there was an outflow of money, but only by 321 billion rubles, which is 0.7%. As the regulator clarified, this dynamics is explained by the preservation of favorable rates on deposits. The average maximum indicator in rubles of the top 10 banks rose to 14.85%.

All this suggests that the attractiveness of deposits will remain, says Vyacheslav Putilovsky, junior director for bank ratings of the Expert RA agency: “The growth in household deposits, which was in the fourth quarter of 2023, is primarily due to the simultaneous sharp increase in the key rate and for commercial mortgages. Accordingly, some people who were planning to buy an apartment placed funds at newly increased interest rates. The January outflow is a statistical error; moreover, some of the deposits may have ended. I would say that this is an ordinary situation.

The increase in the average maximum deposit rate is closely related to the key rate; everything depends on it. But you need to take into account changes in the market, and seasonal factors, for example, the rise in price of non-preferential mortgages also have an impact. In general, I think that there will be some kind of plateau, after which the decline will begin. It’s difficult to predict anything, because there are a lot of factors, and some of them are external, but I think this situation will last for about six months.”

The attractiveness of bank deposits will directly depend on the level of the key rate, and short-term deposits remain the most profitable, emphasizes Pavel Samiev, CEO of the analytical agency BusinessDrom: “The deposit this year, unless there is some significant reduction in the rate, will be among the leaders in profitability , it also has appropriate risk protection. It turns out that now the deposit is a very good instrument not only for conservative investors, but it covers inflation in terms of profitability, which in itself is quite important.

Now short-term deposits are the most profitable, because if we assume that the rate will decrease, at the moment it is the highest for short-term deposits. That is, semi-annual deposits are a particularly interesting instrument in terms of profitability.”

The Central Bank will decide on the new value of the key rate next week; a meeting of the regulator’s board of directors is scheduled for March 22.

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Vladimir Rasulov