Demand for travel to Moscow after the terrorist attack decreased by 10–50%

The negative background after the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall, the restriction of the operation of some attractions and entertainment areas in Moscow, as well as the cancellation of business events led to a reduction in demand for trips to the capital by 10–50%. In other tourist destinations, including trips abroad, the decline was less pronounced – about 15%. This trend will continue for two to three weeks, market participants expect. They expect demand to recover in the absence of new shocks.

The number of tours to Moscow due to restrictions on the operation of some museums and entertainment areas imposed after the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall may be reduced by 10–30%, says Sergei Romashkin, vice-president of the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR). According to Alean, the volume of hotel bookings in the capital on March 25 was half as much as a week ago. Intourist recorded a 50% reduction in demand.

Tour operators surveyed by Kommersant have not yet seen mass cancellations of bookings. ATOR says we are talking about 5–10%. According to Mr. Romashkin, many residents of other cities who were going on tours to Moscow have not yet made a decision, discussing the possibility, for example, of rescheduling.

After the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall on March 22, many major museums suspended work for the period March 23–24. The entrance to Red Square, according to Sergei Romashkin, was closed on Monday. Entrance to VDNKh, where the “Russia” exhibition, popular among tourists, is taking place only through the main entrance, through the security checkpoints. Some regions, according to Intourist representative Daria Domostroeva. Travel restrictions have been introduced for school groups.

Tvil.ru notes an increase in the number of canceled bookings in Moscow hotels on March 22–25 by 69% week-on-week and a decrease in demand by 36%. “Property owners react to changes promptly, contacting guests,” notes Oksana Shustikova, director of development and communications at Tvil.ru. According to her, before this, interest in trips from residents of other regions of the country was increasing.

Ostrovok.ru noted an increase in the number of cancellations of reservations on weekends, but so far, according to a representative of the service, they have not become widespread. “If the reservations were at hotels in the Crocus City Hall area, then we contacted the clients and resolved issues about transferring or canceling the reservation,” explained Yandex Travels.

Director of the Association of Tourist Aggregators Yulia Skoromolova associates the increased number of canceled bookings with the postponement or cancellation of public events and changes in the timing of business trips. Cancellations of business events began on the morning of March 23, says MICE director of IBC Corporate Travel Olga Stepanenko. According to her, in total, about 5% of planned events will not take place, but we are talking about large conferences in which the participation of several or even thousands of people was planned. Some companies, according to the expert, retain only the business program, abandoning the entertainment program. Ms. Stepanenko predicts that the market will continue to decline in the next three weeks: “This happened both during the pandemic and with the start of the military operation.” According to Olga Stepanenko, there were no additional prohibitions or instructions from the authorities on holding events.

The reduction in tourist activity can be seen not only in terms of trips to Moscow. Sletat.ru says that for the period March 23–25, the total volume of all tours sold decreased by 15% compared to the previous week. But the tourism market is recovering quite quickly, and March is considered the month of active bookings for the summer season, the company adds. Intourist talks about a general decline of 20–25%, but also predicts a rapid recovery.

Daria Domostroeva compares the situation with last year’s earthquakes in Turkey, which also caused a strong emotional response among tourists. But eventually sales quickly returned to normal, she recalls. Alean expects that demand in Moscow will recover within a week. Vice-President of the Russian Union of Travel Industry Dmitry Gorin notes that such shocks always have a strong impact on tourism demand, leading to a reduction in the volume and depth of sales. According to him, in the absence of new shocks, the negative trend will persist for two to three weeks, after which the situation will normalize.

Alexandra Mertsalova