Demand for Russian semi-trailers is declining after 2023 records

Demand for Russian semi-trailers began to slow down after a record result in 2023, machine builders state. So far, sales are still showing growth compared to last year, but the current level of the Central Bank rate has already led to refusals of equipment. Domestic players propose returning canceled state subsidies to support demand for semi-trailers, as well as increasing barriers to imports by raising the recycling fee from 600 thousand to 1 million rubles. Against this background, logistics companies expect a new round of rising prices for equipment.

Russian manufacturers of semi-trailers in January increased sales by 40%, to 1.57 thousand units, according to estimates from Rosspetsmash (75% of equipment manufacturers). The association believes that growth is “inertial,” pointing to the need to “prevent a decline in production and sales of products compared to last year’s results.”

In 2023, the association says, shipments increased by 44%, to 21.4 thousand units. The entire market, according to NAPI, grew by 55.1%, to 43.8 thousand units – this is a record volume in recent years. The share of domestic manufacturers, according to preliminary estimates by Rosspetsmash, fell from 79% to 72%, and import supplies of new and used semi-trailers to the Russian market in 2023 increased by 125% in units (12.7 thousand units) and 139 % in money ($497 million). The association points out that the high base in 2023, a significant increase in leasing prices against the backdrop of the Central Bank rate, as well as rising costs may lead to a reduction in production and shipments of Russian semi-trailers.

Rosspetsmash calls for increasing the discount under the preferential leasing program from 10% to 20–30%, depending on the type of trailed equipment. But now, Kommersant’s interlocutors say, semi-trailers are not included in the program at all. The Ministry of Industry and Trade indicated that to participate in the program, at least 70% localization is required.

The association also believes that the development of “Russian trailer engineering in previous years” was helped by the introduction of a recycling fee. In the future, it is necessary to “develop tools to protect the Russian market from imported products sold at prices at or beyond cost.”

Tonar General Director Denis Krivtsov says that in January, prepaid orders were mainly shipped. “There is an understanding that demand will decline due to the current level of the Central Bank rate,” he predicts. “The extension of preferential leasing to semi-trailers could help intensify demand. Now the market is slowing down, and sales of the most expensive import offers are also declining.” He notes that Tonar expects to maintain sales growth. Denis Krivtsov supports increasing the recycling fee to support Russian players, noting that “China has created huge capacities that allow them to produce a lot of equipment and not really take into account price and cost for the development of exports.”

Russian manufacturers are now in intense competition with offers from China, agrees Denis Kudryavtsev, general director of the Spetsavtoprom association: “Chinese manufacturers are entering segments with year-round demand—curtain blinds, refrigerators, container ships—dumping on cost and offering large volumes of equipment.” European semi-trailers supplied through parallel imports continue to be in demand, he says. Mr. Kudryavtsev explains that in commercial parks, as a rule, all services are built on European equipment and companies do not want to switch to other brands.

The main customer of Russian equipment is the state, and here the demand for equipment will continue to grow due to new construction projects, says Denis Kudryavtsev. But even in this segment, contracting organizations can choose imported equipment, he continues. According to him, semi-trailers from China are now at the level or slightly more expensive than Russian offers, but if the ruble strengthens, they will become cheaper. To equalize conditions, it is necessary to raise the recycling fee for semi-trailers, Mr. Kudryavtsev believes: “Now it is 600 thousand rubles. per piece of equipment, and to compensate for the level of currency decline it is necessary to establish a fee of 0.9–1 million rubles.” He notes that it is still difficult to assess the dynamics of the semi-trailer market at the end of the year, since the main peak in demand for construction equipment occurs in the summer.

There are Russian alternatives in almost all segments of trailed equipment, says Sanjar Ashuraliev, general director of the transport company Delko, but the quality of a number of domestic components and their production time are often inferior to imported analogues. “If Russian-made curtainside semi-trailers, as a rule, are cheaper than imports, then domestic refrigerated vans are quite comparable, and sometimes even higher in cost,” he adds.

Over the past two years, the cost of tilt semi-trailers and isothermal semi-trailers with a refrigeration unit has almost doubled, notes Eduard Mironov, director of procurement of transport services at FM Logistic in Russia: “Any increase in their cost, including due to the disposal fee paid by the buyer, will have a negative impact on the economic operator models.” The price of a standard isothermal semi-trailer has approximately doubled in 2022–2023, confirms Ali Gabidulin, head of the domestic land transportation department at Noytech Supply Chain Solutions, pointing, among other things, to the effect of increased recycling collection. He emphasizes that complete localization of production in the Russian Federation has not been achieved: “The supply of imported components from Turkey, China, Italy, from chassis and refrigeration units to sandwich panels, is only increasing.”

SOTA Logistic Business Development Director Igor Chernyshev says that the main limiting factor in the commercial trailer market now is the cost of credit funds. “Under leasing agreements, they immediately reach 20% per annum,” he explains. “And this is subject to an initial payment, which raises the question of the profitability of the cargo transportation business as a whole.” In the event of an increase in the recycling fee, Mr. Chernyshev expects another round of price increases, “and not only for imported products, but also for domestic semi-trailers,” although this will not affect the purchasing decision.

After “last year’s rush, we are now seeing market saturation both due to parallel imports and a significant number of domestic producers,” says Igor Chernyshev. Other logistics companies interviewed by Kommersant also speak about the absence of a shortage. Thus, Eduard Mironov notes that due to the increase in the key rate, options for “refused” semi-trailers have appeared on the market, which are going on open sale. Sanjar Ashuraliev notes that some shortage remains only in the segment of refrigerated vans.

Olga Nikitina