Demand for Delimobil shares may accelerate new IPOs
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Shares of the company “Carsharing Russia” (provides services under the “Delimobil” brand) showed a steady growth in quotations on the first day of exchange trading. In the first minutes, they grew in price by almost 20%; by the end of the session, the securities closed 6.5% higher than the offering price. Despite a possible correction in the near future, experts expect an increase in the company’s capitalization over the long term. At the same time, high demand for these securities may accelerate the entry of other issuers to the stock exchange.
The first secondary trading in shares of PJSC Carsharing Russia, which took place on the Moscow Exchange on Wednesday, February 7, showed high interest in these securities. In the first minutes of the trading session, quotes increased by 19.62% compared to the IPO price (265 rubles). However, investors failed to maintain such a high level, but the auction closed at almost 283 rubles, which is 6.5% higher than the placement price. The volume of transactions exceeded 1.6 billion rubles, which amounted to 40% of the volume of funds raised by the company.
The day before the company let me down results of the initial placement. In particular, the shares were placed at the upper limit of the stated range (RUB 245–265).
At the same time, against the backdrop of high demand (according to Kommersant’s sources, the oversubscription by the closing of the order book amounted to 4–4.5 times), the issuer increased the placement volume – from 3 billion to 4.2 billion rubles. (including a stabilization package of 15%).
As a result of the placement, the company’s capitalization amounted to 46.6 billion rubles. The company’s shares were purchased by more than 45 thousand investors, with both retail and institutional investors participating in the transaction in a 50:50 ratio.
During 2023, eight issuers conducted IPOs, which was one of the highest results in the history of initial offerings on the Russian market (see “Kommersant” dated December 8, 2023). At the same time, shares of issuers for which multiple oversubscriptions were recorded, and in some cases – tens of times (Astra Group, Sovcombank), showed an increase in quotations by tens of percent in the first days. At the same time, trading volumes in the first days were weakly dependent on both the size of oversubscription and the number of participants. In most cases, they amounted to 40–70% of the volume of the initial offering on the stock exchange; only for Astra Group shares they were more than four times higher than the IPO volume.
After the opening of trading, the security rose against the backdrop of the fact that the allocation for retail clients with a check of 2 million rubles. (average, based on applications) turned out to be around 22%, says Sergei Shemyakin, head of the portfolio solutions department at Go Invest. Then the security began to decline amid active sales from speculators, the expert explains. Retail investors do not always make long-term investments; very often these are speculative purchases, which do not imply long-term ownership of the paper, but involve selling when the price rises, noted Capital Lab partner Evgeniy Shatov.
Despite good business growth rates (based on IFRS reporting, Carsharing Russia’s revenue for the first nine months of 2023 increased by 11%), high market share (in 2022 – 37%) and optimistic forecasts for the development of the carsharing market (at 41%, see “Kommersant” dated December 21, 2023), most likely the company will not be able to surprise investors, says Mr. Shatov. According to him, high interest rates (the key rate is 16%) have a direct negative impact on the company, as it significantly increases the cost of leasing cars.
In a month, when the excitement around the company subsides, the shares may well fall in price by 10–15%, however, the growth potential of the stock could be 20% over the annual horizon, Mr. Shatov predicts.
However, in the long term, experts are positive. Investment strategist of the Arikapital management company Sergei Suverov estimates the growth potential of Delimobil’s securities in a year at 20–25% due to the growth of the vehicle fleet and an increase in financial indicators. In the long term (three to five years), Delimobil may well rise in price to the 2021 estimate if it develops according to plan, believes Finam FG analyst Leonid Delitsyn. Including by using raised funds to reduce the debt burden. Three years ago, the company planned to enter the NYSE and valued the business at $760–912 million (RUB 56–67 billion), but “for market reasons,” the placement did not take place.
At the same time, a successful placement of Car Sharing Russia shares can accelerate the entry of other issuers and an increase in their number, especially against the backdrop of continued high demand from tens of thousands of individuals, Mr. Delitsyn believes. At present, plans have already been announced for the placement of distilleries “Crystal” and “Diasoft” this year. Previously, MTS Bank, Seimer, companies of the holding company AFK Sistema and others did not rule out an IPO.
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