dealers and experts expect sales in the summer at the level of about 80 thousand cars

This year there will be no traditional summer lull in the car market: dealers and experts predict sales at the level of the spring months (about 80,000 cars). Increased supply stimulates traffic in showrooms: Lada Vesta NG, new models of Chinese brands have entered the market, deliveries of parallel imports are growing. In addition, customers may speed up their purchase decision for fear of changes in the dollar. Unsatisfied demand in the middle price segment increases the interest of customers in used cars.

The car market in the coming months will be fixed at about 80 thousand cars, follows from a survey of dealers and analysts conducted by Kommersant. According to the results of May, which is traditionally considered a lower period due to holidays, 72.2 thousand cars were sold in the Russian Federation, in April – 75.6 thousand, Avtostat calculated (see Kommersant Online dated June 5 ).

Now the offer on the market is becoming more diverse – new brands from China are coming out, and they differ in size and pricing. Also, Lada Vesta is starting to enter the salons, which will close a niche in the mass segment and add volumes, says Sergey Udalov from Avtostat. As a result, the segment will grow, and a summer drop in demand is not expected, he believes.

The total exposure of cars in the offers for the client in May was already more than 50% higher compared to April, says Andrey Olkhovsky, general director of Avtodom, and this is without taking into account those warehouses that were not shown on the classifieds and on sellers’ websites. “The more choice of cars is presented, the more traffic and sales in pieces, everything is natural and logical,” he notes. In June, the dealer expects stable demand at the level of May, but “against the backdrop of a lower season, this will be a positive level.”

The number of offers at the beginning of summer increased due to the expansion of the range: Lada Vesta NG, Omoda S5, Changan Alsvin, Changan Eado Plus and other new items are already being delivered to dealers, says Denis Reshetnikov, head of the dealership of the Fresh automotive marketplace. According to him, sales in June can be expected to be at the level of May, as “during the holiday season there is always an increased demand for personal vehicles.”

In early June, the demand for new cars and traffic in showrooms are stable, confirms the director of retail sales of Avilon Renat Tyukteev. The interest of customers, according to him, is fueled by the expected price increase, the expansion of the offer and the model range of many brands on the market. He adds that cars supplied to our market through parallel imports are taking up an increasing share of sales. “For example, the premium segment, against the background of the lack of deliveries of cars from European manufacturers, continues to switch to electric vehicles from China, which are in no way inferior in terms of technical characteristics,” concludes Mr. Tyukteev. “We expect the sector to see significant growth in 2023.”

Sergei Udalov, however, notes that even the premium segment has not yet recovered to pre-crisis levels (9-10%), as prices for proposals for parallel imports are high. In general, the share of cars imported bypassing importers on the market continues to grow and now reaches 12-14% of the entire market. But so far, even an expanded offer, taking into account the emergence of new products and parallel imports, does not fully satisfy consumer demand, and therefore sales in the secondary market are growing, Denis Reshetnikov notes.

Irina Tsygankova, sales director for used cars at Rolf, adds that in the used car segment, sales in May were almost at the level of April, although traditionally there is a decrease in May, as “people are busy with dachas and recreation.” “In June, we expect the market to grow, as everyone has already finished their schoolwork, May summer cottages and remembered about cars. People choose a vacation replacement to go on a trip in a different car. And usually June shows an increase of 15% compared to May, and this year will not be an exception. And taking into account the growth of the exchange rate, the demand may grow at the moment,” concludes Mrs. Tsygankova.

The cost of cars in the future will directly correlate with the exchange rate and its change by the time of purchase, Andrei Olkhovsky notes. With a stable economic climate without significant changes in the terms of payments and logistics schemes, new car sales could approach 1 million cars by the end of the year, he concludes. The forecast of Avtostat assumes that by the end of the year 780 thousand cars will be sold in the base scenario and up to 1 million cars in the optimistic one.

Olga Nikitina