Couriers slow down – Newspaper Kommersant No. 230 (7431) of 12/12/2022

The saturation of the grocery delivery market in the Moscow region and the outflow of some active users from the capital will lead to a noticeable decrease in the growth rate of this business. According to Infoline forecasts, in Moscow and the region, the growth in the turnover of food delivery services in 2023 will decrease to 40% from more than 50% this year, and in the whole country — to 44% from about 60%. Against this backdrop, some market participants have already resumed regional expansion.

The growth rate of the food delivery market in Moscow and the Moscow region in 2023 will slow down to 40%, Infoline predicts. According to the agency, by the end of 2022, online sales of products in the Moscow region will grow by 53%, to 326.2 billion rubles. year by year. Moscow and the Moscow region account for more than 50% of all online food orders in the country. The turnover of the entire Russian food delivery market in 2022 will increase by approximately 60%, to RUB 600–620 billion. year on year, in 2023 – by 44%, calculated in Infoline.

According to Infoline, the market of the Moscow region is more mature and the level of penetration of e-grocery here is comparable to that of Western European countries. According to the results of January-September 2022, 6.7% of residents used food delivery here, and by the end of 2023, the figure may grow to 8.7%. For comparison, in Russia as a whole, the level of penetration of e-grocery over this period may increase from 2.9% to 3.9%, Infoline predicts. In addition, Mikhail Burmistrov, CEO of Infoline-Analytics, says that the market dynamics of the Moscow region is affected by the outflow of part of the solvent population, which were often the main users of delivery services.

According to Infoline, 20% of the food delivery market in the Moscow region in September 2022 is occupied by Vkusvill. Sbermarket, Ozon (including Ozon Fresh) and X5 Group (Pyaterochka, Perekrestok, Karusel) control 10% each. Another 9% of the market is occupied by “Scooter”, and 41% falls on other services.

According to Mr. Burmistrov, a noticeable gap between Vkusvill and its competitors is associated with the opening of a dark store company in the cottage settlements of the Moscow region. Maxim Sukhinenko, Vkusvill’s delivery manager, says that the network’s delivery operates in 67 cities across the country, and the Moscow region accounts for about 70% of online sales. According to him, the company is also testing new services here – round-the-clock delivery, express, etc.

According to Infoline research, in order to stimulate demand, most market participants intensified marketing activity in the summer, actively expanded their portfolio of private labels, as well as the range of ready-made food to attract consumers who want to save money on visiting restaurants. According to NielsenIQ, eating out is one of the top three budget savings after shopping for new clothes and out-of-home entertainment. And the share of discounted goods in the online market for food and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) exceeds the level of the offline market. In August-September 2022, online promo took 72% versus 51% offline, according to NielsenIQ.

One Story partner Olga Sumishevskaya believes that the focus of the development of online delivery services next year will continue to shift beyond the capital, where a fairly mature market has already been formed. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2022, Samokat resumed regional expansion and launched delivery in Stavropol, Orel, Tambov and Krasnoyarsk. Sbermarket also has potential for development, which does not yet cover all significant cities, Mikhail Burmistrov believes. According to him, in the regions there is still a rather low level of competition between food delivery services.

Yandex.Lavka confirms that regional markets have great potential. According to the company’s estimates, the number of orders in Yandex.Lavka in the regions, with the exception of Moscow and St. Petersburg, has grown 2.5 times over the year. The customer base here is initially lower than in the capital markets, and online delivery is only gaining popularity among residents, a Yandex.Lavka representative notes.

Alina Savitskaya