Contribution for Christmas – Finance – Kommersant

Even in the extraordinary year 2022, banks keep the tradition and attract depositors with seasonal deposits at a higher rate. At the same time, they actively stimulate the attraction of funds for a longer period, not excluding the tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank. However, deposit rates are still below inflation, especially since banks can afford not to raise expensive liabilities. After all, citizens do not have many tools left to save money, and the ruble deposit is the main one.

Inflation rates

The deposit market in 2022, just like the economy as a whole, has experienced several shocks. But overall, he got through it. According to the results of 11 months of this year, the portfolio of deposits of individuals in Russian banks amounted to 33.4 trillion rubles. (excluding funds on escrow accounts that are used to pay for apartments in new buildings), statistics show CB. This is almost the same as at the beginning of the year (34.9 trillion rubles). At the same time, the portfolio of deposits of individuals in rubles over this period even increased slightly – by 7%, to 29.8 trillion rubles, but in foreign currency it almost halved, to 3.7 trillion rubles. “In general, in 2022, banks really managed to defend their liquidity. The portfolio of deposits of individuals remained approximately at the same level as it was before February,” explains Yury Gribanov, CEO of Frank RG.

After a sharp rise in the key rate in March (up to 20%), high deposit rates did not last long. And confidently began to decline from the end of this month. At the same time, they reached the values ​​of the beginning of the year already by June and continued to decline until the end of September. However, after the announcement of partial mobilization at the end of September against the backdrop of a sharp outflow of funds from deposits, deposit rates began to rise again. As a result, the average maximum rate on deposits at the largest banks in the second decade of December reached 8.19% per annum, the maximum since the first decade of June. This is lower than the current inflation rate, which in November, according to Rosstat, amounted to about 12%. At the same time, the financial authorities expect inflation to decrease next year: 5-7% according to the Central Bank and 5.5% according to the Ministry of Economic Development. Growth accelerated towards the end of the year, including against the background of the weakening of the Russian currency. According to the Moscow Exchange, since the beginning of December, the dollar and yuan have risen by 15-16%, and the euro by 20%.

Long ruble

The conservative banking system keeps the traditions of New Year deposits in 2022 as well. “Activity to offer promotional products with increased rates has not changed significantly. Some large banks have promotional current accounts with a yield of up to 9.5% per annum in rubles,” comments Vyacheslav Putilovsky, junior director for banking ratings at Expert RA.

It is significant that the largest state-owned banks offer some of the highest rates.

So, Sberbank, according to information on its website, until January 15 offers the “Best” deposit. However, to get the maximum rate – 9.5% per annum, you need to place funds for three years. For shorter deposits, for example, a year and two months, the rate will be 8.3% per annum, for six months – 7.8% per annum. The minimum amount for “customers from the street” is 100 thousand rubles. An important condition for receiving an increased rate is the placement of new funds, and not shifting them from the old bank deposit.

VTB also offers a maximum rate for long deposits. In November, the bank launched a three-year “Stable” deposit for customers with a yield of 9.5% per annum. The minimum deposit amount is 1 thousand rubles. In addition, in December, VTB revised the yield on the Savings account “Safe”: the rate for new customers in the first three months increased by 1 percentage point, to 9% per annum, said Natalya Tuchkova, head of the Savings department at VTB. The amount of funds for the savings account starts from 1 rub.

Rosselkhozbank also launched a New Year’s campaign Seize the Moment with similar conditions. Those who do not have active term deposits can take part in it. The rate on a deposit for a period of three years will be 9.5% per annum, and for a period of one year and one month – 8% per annum. Clients who, as part of the promotion, make a deposit in the amount of 1 million rubles or more can receive a Mir-UnionPay card for free.

And traditionally, under certain conditions, banks promise an increased percentage. So, Sovcombank offers a seasonal deposit “Winter income with Halva” with a maximum rate of 9% per annum when investing for 12 months. However, in this case, it is necessary to comply with the conditions of regular turnover on the Halva card. Without this, the rate is reduced to 8%. Or, for example, the opening of the deposit “ICB. 30 years” in the Moscow Credit Bank online will allow you to get a yield of 10% per annum when placed for three years. Whereas opening such a deposit in a bank branch will give only 8% per annum. When placing funds for 1 year, the rate will be 8.4% and 7.4%, respectively.

Friendly exchange

This year, another trend in the deposit market has strengthened — devaluation. Due to tough anti-Russian sanctions and geopolitics, Russian banks today either cannot or are not interested in attracting liabilities in dollars and euros. “The share of deposits in unfriendly currencies (including in the dollar, euro) will decrease, since their use for banks is very limited and difficult due to sanctions. They will be gradually replaced by deposits in relatively stable currencies of the main trading partners,” notes Vyacheslav Putilovsky. However, as Mr. Gribanov notes, “the exchange rate of the yuan is too dependent on non-market subjective factors, such as the decisions of the Chinese Communist Party. Weak currencies with vigorous depreciation, such as the Turkish lira, also cannot be a replacement for the dollar for savings.”

Of the largest banks, not so many now open deposits in “unfriendly” currencies.

At the same time, in a number of banks (RRDB, RSHB) the rates are symbolic – 0.01% per annum. Moreover, in RRDB the size of the deposit should be from $100,000 or €100,000. In Alfa-Bank, you can place from $500 or €500 for a period of three months to three years at 0.1% per annum. On the deposit of the MCB “All Inclusive” you can get up to 0.6% per annum when placing funds from six months to two years, placing amounts from $100 or €100. Bank Saint-Petersburg offers deposits from $1,000 for one and two years at 1% per annum, from €1,000 at 1% per annum for a year and at 1.5% per annum for two years. VTB seems to be the most generous, attracting deposits of $1,000 or €1,000 at 5% per annum. However, the period is limited to three months, although such a deposit provides for a two-fold prolongation. However, only cash currency can be placed on such a deposit.

In the latter case, it is worth considering the fact that the Central Bank extended until March 9, 2023 restrictions on the withdrawal from the accounts of citizens of cash currency of unfriendly countries (dollars, euros, pounds sterling and others), placed before March 9, 2022. Thus, the newly placed funds in these currencies, both cash and non-cash, will not be able to be withdrawn before the new deadline. If necessary, they can be converted into rubles or currencies of friendly countries (for example, yuan). However, you should take into account the conversion rate, which is less favorable than the current exchange rate.

But in relation to the Chinese currency, banks are more generous. Thus, Gazprombank attracts yuan for one year at a rate of 0.5% per annum. In Sberbank, on an annual deposit, the rate will be 0.7% per annum, and with an investment for three years – 1.07% per annum. The deposit “MKB.Vostochny” can be placed at a rate of 1.2% for one year, in Alfa-Bank – at 1.71% per annum. Moreover, in most cases, you will need to invest from 10 thousand CNY (the equivalent of 100 thousand rubles), and in Alfa-Bank – from 500 CNY (a total of 5 thousand rubles).

Taking into account the fact that cash yuan is still poorly distributed among potential customers, banks offer to place not only cash, but also non-cash funds. But in this case, the conversion rate is important so that it does not “eat up” the income received. In particular, on December 23, the rate for buying yuan in a mobile bank or online at GPB was 11.3 rubles, at Sberbank – 10.24 rubles, at Alfa-Bank – 10 rubles. As a result of trading on the stock exchange on December 23, the rate stopped near the mark of 9.9 rubles.

Deferred tax

It is noteworthy that deposit rates in 2022 as a whole are still below inflation today. “Banks are not ready to attract liquidity at rates higher than inflation, because this will force them to raise rates on loans, and this, in turn, will disrupt the recovered demand for borrowing,” Mr. Gribanov notes.

However, the fact that the rate is below inflation does not exempt bank customers from paying tax on income received from deposits. The new mechanism was supposed to start operating in 2022 (for income based on the results of 2021). However, amendments to the law postponed the start of action to 2024, i.e. for income received (namely received, not accrued) in 2023. If the account or deposit is in rubles, then the tax is calculated if the rate on such placements exceeds 1% per annum, even if it was not a full year. Income on deposits in foreign currency is accrued regardless of the rate. The amount not subject to taxation is equal to 1 million rubles multiplied by the maximum value of the key rate in the year for which the tax is paid. Moreover, the taxable amount is calculated from income from everyone deposits.

In 2022, the maximum rate reached 20%, however, we recall that this year taxes are not levied. For example, if the maximum rate in 2023 remains at the current level (7.5%), then the depositor will be exempt from paying taxes on the amount of 75 thousand rubles. And if in December 2022 he places 0.9 million rubles. for an annual deposit with a rate of 8.4% per annum and 0.5 million rubles. on a semi-annual deposit with a rate of 7% per annum, then the income received in the next year will be 93.1 thousand rubles. (75.6 thousand rubles for the first deposit and 17.5 thousand rubles for the second deposit). Subtracting from this amount 75 thousand rubles exempt from tax, we get 18.1 thousand rubles, from which you will have to pay at a rate of 13%. That is, 2.35 thousand rubles.

If the deposit is multi-year with payment at the end of the term, then the tax-free amount is deducted from the total amount of interest received during this period. If interest is paid regularly (for example, quarterly), then the non-taxable amount is deducted from these regular payments annually.

Thus, the ruble deposit, even if at a rate lower than inflation, for Russians today is actually the only affordable and reliable savings instrument.

“The propensity of the population to save is likely to remain elevated due to geopolitical tensions and general uncertainty. Withdrawal of cash from banks after the announcement of partial mobilization was suspended in November. In such conditions, most likely, the population’s funds in bank accounts for 2023 may increase moderately – by 5-10%,” Natalya Vashchelyuk, chief analyst at Sovcombank, estimates.

Vlad Urgent