Consumers turned on the savings mode – Newspaper Kommersant No. 159 (7360) dated 08/31/2022

About half of Russians believe that their food costs will increase in the coming months, analysts at TeDo (formerly Pricewaterhouse Coopers) found out. Approximately a third of consumers expect to reduce their spending on clothing, footwear, household appliances and electronics. While retailers are reporting price stabilization and even price cuts, experts predict shoppers will move into austerity.

Every second Russian believes that his spending on food products will increase in the next few months. This conclusion is contained in the TeDo study, which Kommersant has. About 33% of respondents expect a rise in prices for household goods and repairs, 30% for clothing and footwear, 27% for health and beauty services, and 19% for electronics and home appliances.

Mikhail Burmistrov, CEO of Infoline-Analytics, links the further rise in prices to the prospects for the weakening of the ruble and the shortage of imported products in a number of categories. In TeDo, they explain the rise in prices for goods by inflation that has been record for several decades against the backdrop of falling real disposable incomes of Russians. According to Rosstat forecasts, by the end of 2022, inflation will be 17.8% year-on-year. According to the estimates of the Ministry of Economy, the incomes of Russians will decrease by 3.7%.

In Magnit, Lenta and the Verny network, Kommersant refused to comment. Ilya Fedotov, head of macroeconomic analysis at X5 Group (Pyaterochka, Perekrestok and Chizhik chains), said that the dynamics of consumption in the country turned out to be more positive than the retailer had previously expected, including due to a stable situation in the labor market. Analysts of “TeDo” believe that the increase in unemployment in the country will become noticeable only in the second half of the year due to a reduction in production.

In addition, Mr. Fedotov specifies, a good harvest of basic agricultural crops this year will slow down the pace of growth in food prices. One of the determining factors of development for grocery retailers, TeDo analysts note, is small formats – convenience stores. According to Ilya Fedotov, the conservatism of Russians regarding their spending influenced X5’s decision to accelerate the expansion of the Chizhik chain of hard discounters.

Gennady Levkin, General Director of the Stockmann clothing chain, also does not expect an increase in prices for clothing and footwear in the coming months. At the moment, the cost of goods, he continues, is approximately comparable to prices at the beginning of 2022. “On the one hand, the dollar and the euro fell, and the purchase of goods for retailers became cheaper, on the other hand, logistics costs increased significantly. If the cost of delivering goods to the country remains or decreases, the winter collection will be sold at last year’s prices or even cheaper,” the top manager calculates.

In addition, more than 40% of TeDo survey participants expect their electronics spending to decline in the coming months. Approximately a third of those surveyed predict a reduction in spending on household goods and repairs, as well as clothing and footwear.

Wildberries claims that in the second quarter of the year, compared with January-March, average prices for laptops and computers fell by about a third, TVs fell in price by 17%, smartphones – by 13%. Ozon is also seeing price cuts in some categories. So, the cost of laptops has decreased by almost a quarter compared to the beginning of the year, they add there.

Natalia Kozlova, head of retail and consumer goods services at TeDo, however, points out that the decrease in spending in these categories is due to the fact that consumers generally refuse to buy goods, and not because of a decrease in their cost. Mikhail Burmistrov notes that the reduction in spending in these categories may be due to an uncomfortable price level: consumers were not ready to buy goods at new prices and took a wait-and-see attitude.

Nikita Shchurenkov