Commerce was not in the price – Business – Kommersant

Attendance of shopping centers in Moscow and St. Petersburg lags behind last year by 9-13%. The pre-New Year period may give an impulse to the market, but it is difficult to predict the behavior of consumers now. The share of vacant retail space against this background is growing. A similar trend is observed in the office real estate market, where the amount of freed space has noticeably exceeded absorption. Resilience to the crisis is demonstrated only by the street retail format, the activity in which is supported by the opening of tobacco shops, small catering establishments and shops of Russian designers.

The Mall Index (number of visitors per 1,000 sq. m.) in shopping malls in Moscow for the week of December 5-11 turned out to be 13% lower than the figure for the same period last year, and 9% lower in St. Petersburg. Such data is provided by Focus Technologies. From the indicators of December 2019, the attendance of shopping centers in Moscow, according to analysts, lags behind by 31%, St. Petersburg – by 26%. The main trend in the market remains the same: the gap with 2021 remains, Mikhail Vasiliev, head of research and consulting at Focus Technologies, states. At the same time, the expert does not rule out that in the next two weeks it will be possible to see a pre-New Year growth in demand. Although it is difficult to predict the mood of consumers during this period.

Empty shops

Low attendance and the departure of foreign brands this year contributed to the increase in the share of vacant space in the shopping centers of Moscow from 9% to 12%, according to the Magazin Magazin company. At the same time, NF group analysts do not rule out that up to 16-17% of the area may be empty by the end of the year. This dynamics does not contribute to the interest of investors in the opening of notable new objects – now they focus mainly at the facilities of the most crisis-resistant district format. Inna Safargali, Head of the Private Assets Department of the RAD Sales Department, suggests that this trend will continue next year, small objects will expand their conceptual content.

For the street retail market, the outgoing year, according to the commercial director of R4S Group Irina Burenko, was quite favorable and the number of transactions increased. “Covid restrictions proved to be more painful for the segment than the radical upheavals of this year, in which a period of calm in the first quarter was subsequently replaced by hyperactivity,” she argues. Although the tenants, according to the expert, are trying to optimize the size of the occupied space: the average size of the leased area for the year has decreased from 80 sq. m to 50 sq. m.

The most active tenants of retail premises, according to Ms. Burenko, this year were tobacco shops (20% of transactions), catering outlets (19%) and Russian fashion retailers (9%).

The last direction was not actually present on the market before, the company notes. Vacancy on the shopping streets of Moscow, according to the forecasts of Mrs. Burenko, will remain at the current level of 7-12%.

Unclaimed offices

The conjuncture of the office market in the largest cities remains difficult. So, in Moscow over the past period of the year, the volume of negative absorption of space, according to the deputy director of the department of office real estate Nikoliers Olesya Malakhova, in class A at the level of 98 thousand square meters. m.

That is, the volume of purchased and rented space is noticeably less than the vacated and entered the market.

“This was caused by the release of high-quality office space by foreign companies and the optimization of offices by the remaining tenants,” explains Ms. Malakhova. The volume of new transactions in Moscow this year, according to her forecasts, will be about 810 thousand square meters. m, which is two times less than the result of last year. The level of vacant space against this background, according to Nikoliers, will be 8.5%. In class A, the indicator has increased by 2.1 percentage points since the beginning of the year, to 12.1%.

In St. Petersburg, according to Victoria Goryacheva, deputy director of Nikoliers’ tenant services department, the average vacancy rate has already increased by 3.3 percentage points since the beginning of the year, to 9.5%. According to the results of this year, 12-14% of the area may be empty. Although the volume of transactions this year, according to the expert, exceeded the value of last year due to several major agreements. The general director of NF Group in St. Petersburg, Konstantin Losyukov, indicates that the total absorption in the city since the beginning of the year amounted to 170 thousand square meters. m, which is already 31% higher than last year. At the same time, he does not rule out that the figure will eventually grow to 200 thousand square meters. m.

The weighted average cost of renting offices in Moscow, according to Nikoliers, is now 27.14 thousand rubles. per sq. m, which is only 2.8% lower than at the beginning of the year. “The owners are trying to maintain weighted average rates by offering individual discounts during the negotiation process,” notes Ms. Malakhova. In St. Petersburg, according to Victoria Goryacheva, the decline is more pronounced: since the beginning of the year, class A offices have fallen in price by 10.7%, to 1.68 thousand rubles. per sq. m per month, class B – by 6.3%, up to 1.23 thousand rubles. per sq. m.

In the future, consultants are counting on a gradual recovery of activity in the office market.

“Companies have adapted and can implement their plans, whether it be expansion or cost optimization,” says Ms. Malakhova. Although NF Group partner Maria Zimina expects Moscow to continue this year’s trends: negative net takeover, increased vacancy and reduced demand. At the same time, tenants, according to her forecasts, will be characterized by a short-term planning horizon of one to two years instead of the usual five years.

Victoria Goryacheva points out that an increase in the activity of tenants in St. Petersburg was already observed in December. At the same time, Mr. Losyukov does not rule out that the vacancy in the office market in the city will still grow due to the further withdrawal of foreign players, the commissioning of new facilities and the consolidation of the oil and gas company’s divisions in new business centers.

Alexandra Mertsalova