Citizens took the risk – Kommersant

In the first quarter, the loss of clients of forex dealers decreased markedly compared to the end of 2022. In addition, the number of accounts has increased. Experts attribute the trends to the return of Russian citizens trading in foreign jurisdictions and offshore sites, as well as to the high volatility of the foreign exchange market and the growth of earning opportunities for risk-averse clients. According to analysts, interest in increasing turnover on forex accounts will continue until the crisis agenda in the global economy is mitigated.

The total loss of clients of forex dealers for the first quarter of 2023 amounted to 291.4 million rubles, Kommersant calculated based on reports. A quarter earlier, it was at the level of 422 million rubles. The largest loss was shown by clients of Alfa-Forex — 260.9 million rubles, Finam Forex — 16.3 million rubles, VTB Forex — 15.4 million rubles. BCS-Forex clients completed the first quarter with a profit of 1.2 million rubles. The number of accounts increased over the quarter to 13,025 from 12,050 in 2022. Of these, 8283 accounts were closed in the red, 4742 accounts were in the black.

The forex market in Russia has not had the best reputation for many years due to aggressive advertising and unscrupulous companies, says Evgeny Shatov, partner at Capital Lab. Now the growth in the number of clients of forex dealers is primarily due to the return of Russian citizens trading in foreign jurisdictions and offshore sites, as well as the high volatility of the foreign exchange market and the growth of earning opportunities for those who are prone to increased risk, the expert believes. There is also an increase in the number of available currency pairs, and due to the growth of parallel imports, the number of settlements with suppliers from the CIS countries and other friendly countries (including through the Turkish lira and the Chinese yuan) is growing, says Mr. Shatov, the list of available instruments has been supplemented with contracts for difference (CFD). According to him, all this contributes to growth.

Arikapital’s strategist Sergey Suverov connects the increase in the number of clients of forex dealers with the high volatility of exchange rates, primarily the ruble against foreign currencies, and the opportunity to earn on fluctuations. He also draws attention to the expansion of the number of instruments: “New currency pairs have appeared on the Moscow Exchange, in particular, dirham futures have appeared. Since this currency is pegged to the dollar, but does not carry the infrastructure risks of the US currency, it can be very popular with clients of forex dealers. We can also expect more active trading in the currencies of the CIS countries, in particular, the Kazakh tenge and the Armenian dram.” According to the results of the current quarter and year, Mr. Shatov expects continued growth in trading volume and active clients.

The growth in the number and turnover of active forex accounts is due to a more dynamic situation in the foreign exchange market, says Anna Avakimyan, chief analyst at RegBlock. At the same time, she sees a noticeable movement both in the dollar-euro pair and the ruble-dollar. Investing in the currencies of friendly countries is one of the ways to utilize foreign exchange liquidity, the expert believes. One of the popular investment ideas, according to Ms. Avakimyan, is investing in foreign currency in the process of foreign investors leaving the Russian market and iterative conversions, and hence the situational weakening of the ruble. “Interest in increasing turnover on forex accounts will continue until the escalation of the crisis agenda in the global economy decreases and the range of available financial instruments expands,” the expert concluded.

At the same time, the decrease in the loss in the first quarter is due solely to the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, believes Dmitry Alexandrov, managing director of Ivolga Capital investment company. Individuals traditionally bet on the decline of the national currency, so on average their rate has been profitable in recent months, he explained. The expert does not expect the dynamics of income to continue, as “as volatility, regardless of the direction of the dynamics, will lead to losses.” New currency pairs, in his opinion, “are incomprehensible to investors, and the main interest in the first place remains in traditional dollars and euros, while new currency pairs remain exotic.”

Ksenia Kulikova