Citizens return to the mortgage – Newspaper Kommersant No. 142 (7343) of 08/08/2022

Banks are increasing the issuance of mortgages, both market and preferential. At the same time, against the backdrop of falling rates, mortgage borrowers have the opportunity to more actively lend to transactions in the secondary real estate market. In August, lending activity is expected to be lower due to seasonality, the next wave of demand is expected in autumn.

According to the reports of the operator of preferential mortgages for new buildings JSC “Dom.RF”, Russian banks from July 28 to August 4 increased the issuance of mortgages to 5.6 thousand loans by 31 billion rubles. against 5.1 thousand pieces for 27.2 billion rubles. a week earlier. The last time higher issuance was recorded in the last week of March 2021 (12.8 thousand units for 32.1 billion rubles). The average check last week amounted to 5.55 million rubles.

Since July, banks have consistently issued more than 20 billion rubles. preferential mortgage per week. Volumes are recovering, among other things, due to low rates.

According to Dom.RF calculations, the weighted average rate on subsidized mortgages is 6.63%, while the average market rate for the largest players is 10.12% in the primary market and 10.23% in the secondary market.

Since the launch of the program in 2020, banks have already issued 761.5 thousand preferential mortgages, of which over 405 thousand (or 53%) fell on Sberbank. In monetary terms, the volume of loans issued amounted to almost 2.3 trillion rubles. The percentage of limit fulfillment for all creditors is 62.73%. Among preferential programs, this is the highest figure against 42.36% for family mortgages and 46.5% for the Far East Mortgage program.

The percentage of execution of the family mortgage program lags behind, although the average rate for it is lower – 5.64%. However, this year, due to its expansion, the issuance has steadily grown. So, if earlier, in 2020–2021, annual disbursements on family mortgages in units were 2.7–3.9 times lower than disbursements on preferential mortgages, this year, only in the first half of the year, disbursements under these programs have converged: as of as of July 25, 80.3 thousand loans were issued on preferential mortgages and 73.4 thousand on family loans.

Going forward, the pace of family mortgages will be supported by the further expansion of the program to include children born before the end of 2023, as well as the possibility of buying a home in the secondary market for families with children with disabilities.

The corresponding draft resolution was published on Friday, August 5. As Kommersant was told in Dom.RF, the effect of the expansion on children born before the end of 2023 will be approximately 50-60 thousand loans, and from the expansion of families with disabled children – about 12 thousand loans per year.

NKR Managing Director Mikhail Doronkin expects a further recovery in demand for mortgages in response to a noticeable rate cut. In August, the gradual growth in demand for mortgages will continue, however, a more obvious recovery of the market should be expected only in September-October, Yaroslav Bajurak, commercial director of the Vyberu.ru financial marketplace, also expects. “Summer months are traditionally considered not the most active in terms of real estate transactions. In addition, the deadlines for the expiration of short-term deposits at 20% or more, which people took in the spring, play a role. So, in June-July, a part of the buyers entered the mortgage market, whose three-month deposits came to an end. The next wave is expected in the fall, as the six-month deposits end,” the expert explains.

The driver of demand in August will be reduced rates on market mortgages, in June they were preferential mortgage programs operating on new buildings, he says. “For the first time since February, rates have reached single digits, and people have the opportunity to buy secondary housing. This is confirmed by the data on issuance of banks,” says Mr. Bajurak. As the number of transactions with secondary housing grows, we can expect a faster recovery in other segments of the mortgage – to buy a new apartment, for example, in a new building on a preferential mortgage, many need to first sell their old housing, the expert concludes.

Mortgage rates in August will be approximately at the same level: in the primary market – about 3.5-4% (in June, the weighted average rate fell to a record low 3.7%), in the secondary market – about 9-9.5%, the director believes group of ratings of financial institutions ACRA Irina Nosova. “We do not expect significant changes in demand for mortgages in general, however, some recovery in demand for secondary housing due to declining rates is likely to continue,” she notes.

Olga Sherunkova