Citizens did not keep their debts – Newspaper Kommersant No. 159 (7360) dated 08/31/2022

Delays in the segment of consumer lending in the Russian Federation continue to grow. The only exceptions are the POS and car lending segments, which are unable to reverse the general trend in the market. Now only every third application in the consumer lending market receives approval, banks maintain a strict scoring policy. However, the level of delay at the end of the year may increase by 16-18%.

According to the data of the United Credit Bureau (OKB, included in the top 3), in July, the delay in the consumer lending segment increased. The only exceptions were the POS and car loans segments, where there was a slight positive trend. Thus, the volume of overdue debt for a period of 30–90 days in the POS lending segment amounted to 2 billion rubles, car loans – 10 billion rubles. A month earlier, the level of delinquency in these segments was 2.3 billion and 10.5 billion rubles. respectively. In the segment of cash loans and credit cards, the level of delinquency in July amounted to 102.5 billion and 40.7 billion rubles. against, 101.2 billion and 39.7 billion rubles. in June.

“Delay on car loans is less likely than on consumer loans (cash or bank card loans), since they are secured by cars,” Alexander Vasilyev, senior manager of the automotive industry group of DRT, explains the trend. and the interest rate on it is lower than on the consumer one. Consequently, the decline in the population’s income significantly affects the need to pay interest at a higher rate, he explains.

The portfolio of loans to individuals continues to grow. In July, banks issued almost 2.8 million loans worth 856.8 billion rubles, according to Frank RG. In monetary terms, issuances were 26% higher than in June, although still lower than a year ago (almost 27%). The mortgage market recovered most rapidly. Issuance volumes increased by 35% compared to the previous month and reached 347 billion rubles. At the same time, the largest volume of issuance in July fell on cash loans – 427.4 billion rubles. Compared to last year, there is still a gap of 17-38%.

The banks interviewed by Kommersant did not answer questions about the dynamics of overdue debts, as did the Central Bank. Only Evgeny Senkovsky, Director of the Department of Arrears at Rosbank, emphasized that the bank’s overdue debt indicators are declining and the bank does not expect an increase in delinquency by the end of the year. However, the bank has repeatedly emphasized its conservative approach to the client base.

“Banks are now pursuing a restrained lending policy, despite the high demand for borrowed funds from individuals, in order to prevent deterioration in the quality of portfolios and massive defaults,” confirms Dmitry Afrikanov, CEO of the Unicom24 financial ecosystem. In consumer lending, only every third application has a positive response, he cites the data.

At the end of the year, experts expect an increase in the level of overdue debt, although not as large as at the height of the pandemic. Thus, according to NAPCA estimates, at the end of the year, the volume of overdue debts of individuals to banks may show an increase of 16-18%. For comparison: a year earlier, the growth was at the level of 6%.

For the second quarter of 2022, overdue debts for a period of 30 to 90 days increased by 30-50% depending on the retail segment, but this increase occurred from a very low base (1-2% of the portfolio), reminds the director of bank ratings of the Expert agency RA” Ivan Uklein. “But the further dynamics of lending and the share of overdue debts significantly depend on the adaptation of the Russian economy to new realities,” he continues. sectors of the economy to new supply chains”

Evgeny Ivanov, director of the retail risk department at PSB, expects that by the end of the year, the level of overdue debt may only slightly exceed the planned values: “the economy and employers are adapting to the sanctions.”

Polina Trifonova