Citizens are not ready for rations – Newspaper Kommersant No. 217 (7418) dated 11/23/2022

The blocking of social networks and the impossibility of promoting products in foreign search engines led to the loss of a significant part of customers by delivery operators of food packages and ready-made rations. This, as well as the decline in effective demand after the announcement of partial mobilization, had a negative impact on the market. In the third quarter of 2022, the volume of this segment decreased by 19%. This is the first time this has happened in six years. Now part of the buyers of ready-made diets have shifted to buying in supermarkets and going to catering establishments.

As follows from an Infoline study provided by Kommersant, in July-September 2022, the volume of the market for the delivery of food packages and ready-made rations amounted to 3.4 billion rubles, which is 19% less year-on-year and 23% compared to April— June of this year. The trend is also confirmed in Tinkoff Data. According to the service, in July-September, spending by Russians in this segment decreased by 33% year-on-year, the number of orders – by 41%.

Such a serious drop in the market happened for the first time, Infoline notes. Since 2016, the delivery of ready-made rations has grown manifold, but already in April of this year, the first signs of stagnation appeared. The decrease in orders in the third quarter of 2022, as expected, had a negative impact on the market dynamics: in the first nine months of this year, its volume amounted to 12.5 billion rubles, which is 4% more year-on-year, while last year’s growth was one and a half times higher than in 2020 of the year.

Mikhail Burmistrov, CEO of Infoline-Analytics, links the contraction in the market for the delivery of ready-made food rations to a decrease in real incomes of the population and increased price competition in retail and catering. At the same time, according to Tinkoff Data, the average order receipt in the segment increased by 13%, to 4.6 thousand rubles. Service analysts also confirm that consumers who stopped ordering delivery of ready-made rations began to increase expenses in supermarkets and catering establishments.

According to Mr. Burmistrov, since the end of September, partial mobilization and a noticeable wave of emigration of the most solvent Russians also had a negative impact on the sales of food packages. In addition, he continues, in the face of sharply increased uncertainty, consumers are increasingly unsubscribing from the delivery of grocery kits and ready meals.

Arthur Zeleny, founder of Performance Group (Performance Food, Level Kitchen, My Food), says that blocking social networks has dramatically reduced the volume of client Internet traffic. Market participants had to look for new channels of attraction, which took some time, he adds. Elementaree founder Olga Zinovieva says it has become impossible to advertise on Google — up to 90% of new customers came from this platform. According to her, alternative channels for attracting buyers have not yet yielded even close comparable results.

This affected almost all major market participants. According to Infoline estimates, in the third quarter of 2022, Performance Group’s revenue in July-September 2022 decreased year-on-year by 22%, to 1.19 billion rubles, Grow Food – by 20%, to 750 million rubles. Chefmarket’s revenue, on the contrary, increased by 21%, to 290 million rubles. Elementaree noted “some decrease in revenue.” Grow Food claims that their revenue has not declined. Chefmarket confirms that in the third quarter of 2022, the company’s turnover increased by 12% year-on-year, but in the second quarter there was a decrease of 14%.

The decline in the volume of the market for ready-made rations and food packages, recorded in the third quarter, will continue further. This, according to Infoline forecasts, will lead to a decrease in market volumes by 4% in 2022. Although Chefmarket expects a slight increase in revenue at the end of the year, they admit that its size will be insufficient for positive dynamics at the end of the year. Against this background, some market participants are thinking about business diversification. According to Artur Zeleny, the market slowdown is another reason to take a closer look at related food markets, entering them will allow additional loading of production.

Daria Andrianova