Cars full of rubles – Newspaper Kommersant No. 170 (7371) of 09/15/2022

Russian Railways may index rail freight rates in 2023 by 9.8%, collecting almost 190 billion rubles from shippers. additional funds. This is necessary to ensure the investment program is at a record level: in 2023 it should amount to 1.23 trillion rubles. This year, the investment program initially also went over a trillion, but was sequestered to 838 billion rubles, in particular, due to a reduction in planned investments in the BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway. According to analysts, the proposed level of indexation is detrimental to the industry, and the investment program is too optimistic.

The indexation of the freight railway tariff from January 1, 2023 may be 9.8%, two sources familiar with the proposals of Russian Railways told Kommersant. According to one of them, the proposal was approved by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov at a meeting on September 14. The secretariat of Mr. Belousov did not give any comments.

Funds are needed to ensure the implementation of the investment program of the monopoly. In 2022, it was supposed to be a record one, however, in May, Russian Railways announced a reduction from 1.028 trillion rubles. up to 808 billion rubles.

A source familiar with the course of the discussion told Kommersant that the 2022 investment program regarding the approved plan should eventually be sequestered by 190 billion rubles. (up to 838 billion rubles), of which 91 billion rubles. accounted for underutilized relative to the level of investment approved in 2021 in the expansion of the BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway.

The investment program for 2023, according to Kommersant, should amount to 1.23 trillion rubles, which is more than the previous plan (1.14 trillion rubles). Russian Railways declined to comment.

A Kommersant source familiar with the details of the meeting noted that such a volume of the investment program is due to the need to accelerate the development of the Eastern test site.

According to him, the planned indexation of tariffs corresponds to inflationary expectations and fits into the limits set by the government.

Another interlocutor of Kommersant said that under the new investment program for 2023, appropriations for the Eastern test site (BAM and Trans-Siberian along with the Artyshta-Mezhdurechensk-Taishet section) will increase by 118 billion rubles, up to 260 billion rubles. Also, investments in the repair and development of the track complex and other infrastructure facilities will increase significantly – up to 319 billion rubles.

The interlocutor of “Kommersant” notes the low probability of disbursing funds for the BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway in this volume. This year, the level of development at the end of August amounted to 66 billion rubles, Andrey Makarov, Deputy General Director of Russian Railways, said, and according to the results of nine months, it is planned to complete work for 78 billion rubles, which is more than in all of 2021. Another interlocutor of Kommersant in the industry notes that according to the results of 2013-2020, the average level of disbursement of funds at the Eastern test site was 73 billion rubles. in year. This is 3.5 times less than planned for 2023.

“Even in Soviet times, they were clearly aware of the destructiveness of the concentration of powers in the hands of the Ministry of Railways,” says the interlocutor of Kommersant among the clients of Russian Railways. “The construction of BAM, for example, was under the control of the Ministry of Construction to the last nail. Today, taking into account the changed economic structure, it seems necessary to supplement the model with the institution of professional infrastructure customers, returning the authority for construction to the Ministry of Construction. Then there will be no reasons to increase tariffs as a derivative of the growth of the non-executable investment program.” And the behind-the-scenes nature of making decisions on tariffs will disappear as unnecessary, he adds. The governor of Kuzbass Sergey Tsivilev has already proposed to transfer the authority for the construction of the Eastern test site to the Ministry of Construction (see “Kommersant” of September 6).

Tariff growth by 9.8% is about 190 billion rubles. additional fees from shippers. This year, tariffs have already been indexed to a record value for recent years: at the beginning of the year – by 7.7%, and from June 1 – by 11%.

As a Kommersant source in the industry calculated, taking into account all tariff decisions (based on the contribution to the tariff growth of the abolition of reduction coefficients for coal in 3% annual indexation), the average network tariff of Russian Railways at the end of 2022 increases by December 2021 by 23.1% with the forecast of annual inflation, according to the speech of the President of the Russian Federation, less than 12%.

According to the long-term development program of Russian Railways, the annual tariff indexation until 2025 should be the arithmetic average of the consumer inflation index (CPI) for four years minus 0.1%.

“In fact, the principle is not being implemented,” says the interlocutor of “Kommersant” among the clients of the monopoly. “Every year, Russian Railways comes up with proposals for additional indexation of tariffs. So, when indexing for 2018, an additional allowance for tax compensation was introduced. When indexing for 2019, additional coefficients for export and empty mileage of gondola cars. When indexing for 2020, the principle of calculating the average increase in the price level over four years made it possible to index the tariff by 3.5%, which was higher than the expected inflation for 2020 – 3%. When indexing for 2021, the principle of long-term indexation was not observed, the general indexation was not carried out according to the formula, the coefficient for overhaul was increased and the tariffs for containers, empty innovative wagons and anthracite were changed.”

The interlocutor of Kommersant says that, taking into account previous indexations, “any indexation of the Russian Railways tariff for 2023, except for zero, seems unreasonable,” and the surcharge for infrastructure overhaul, which will be 5% in 2023, must be lowered to the previous level of 2%.

According to Mikhail Burmistrov, the head of Infoline-Analytics, the tariff indexation of 9.8%, taking into account the intermediate indexation of 11% in June, is at odds with the inflation expectations of the Central Bank and a number of freight generating industries that are now suffering large-scale losses due to sanctions, it is simply will destroy. He notes that this year the sanctions pressure was partly offset by the favorable situation in the international markets for raw materials, but further pressure will increase, the risks of a global recession will escalate, and the industry will not have the financial reserves that were accumulated in 2021. In his opinion, the investment program of Russian Railways is overly ambitious and reflects an unusually optimistic view on the dynamics of the economy in 2023. Mr. Burmistrov says that the need for accelerated construction of the Eastern test site is obvious, but the investment program should take into account an adequate level of investment, taking into account the actual development of the allocated funds.

Natalya Skorlygina