Buyers settle before the holidays – Business – Kommersant

In December, a seasonal revival began in the secondary real estate markets of the largest cities: Russians traditionally try to close transactions for the purchase and sale of housing before the end of the year. But the dynamics did not lead to an increase in prices – on the contrary, the owners became more loyal to buyers, fearing a further decrease in the value of real estate. The consultants do not rule out that in the future this will lead to the abandonment of the preferential mortgage program, which stimulates competition between the primary and secondary markets.

The average cost of secondary real estate in 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in December amounted to 122.97 thousand rubles. per sq. m, an increase of 0.1% compared to the previous month. Such estimates are given by CIAN.Analytics. In “Etazhy” they indicate that the “secondary” in Russia as a whole fell in price by 0.34% over the month, to 93.2 thousand rubles. per sq. m. The dynamics is affected not only by the reduction in prices by the owners, but also by the change in the structure of supply, explains the director of “Etazhy” Ildar Khusainov. “They buy apartments with a small budget, a smaller area, and overall lots remain in the exposition, where the price per 1 sq. m lower,” he says.

The average apartment on the secondary market in the country, according to Avito Real Estate, now costs 4.1 million rubles. Over the month, this figure increased by 2.5%, over the year – by 20.6%.

According to the calculations of CIAN.Analytics, the average cost of secondary housing in Samara and Krasnoyarsk for the month increased by 2.1%, to 101.7 thousand rubles. and 101.2 thousand rubles. per sq. m respectively. Simultaneously in Rostov-on-Don, according to analysts’ estimates, the figure for the month decreased by 1.1%, to 105.6 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In the “Floors” pay attention to the reduction in the average cost of housing in St. Petersburg. Over the month, the “secondary” in the city has fallen in price by 0.2%, to 189.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m. V Leningrad region, according to CIAN.Analytics, the dynamics is more noticeable – minus 1.5% per month, up to 135.9 thousand rubles. per sq. m.

within the borders “old” Moscow the average cost of secondary real estate is 276.8 thousand rubles. per sq. m, lot – 14.32 million rubles., according to Inkom-estate. Over the month, the indicators decreased by 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. Sergei Shloma, director of the secondary market at Inkom-Nedvizhimost, points out that almost all transactions in the mass segment are discounted by 5-10%. “Owners are ready to make a discount, but they do not always adequately estimate the initial cost, focusing on prices in the announcements at the beginning of the year,” he explains. The former cost, according to the expert, should be reduced by about 8%, otherwise the ad will be ignored.

Although, according to Mr. Shloma, buyers often have the wrong feeling about the huge discounts in the secondary market that they expect to receive. “For example, having 7 million rubles available, a person calls with an offer to buy an apartment offered for 9.5 million rubles,” the consultant explains. Prices for high-budget housing in Moscow, according to the founder of Apple Real Estate Danila Savchenko, are determined based on demand and overstocking of the market. As a result, monthly averages decreased by 3-5% in locations where supply exceeds demand. This dynamic, according to Mr. Savchenko, is connected with the presence of investment apartments: “One or two years ago they were purchased for the purpose of making money, now the owners want to get at least some profit and are ready to cut prices more than standard sellers.”

The total supply of secondary housing in the markets of the largest cities, according to Alexei Popov, head of CIAN.Analytics, remains stable: it decreased by 0.2% over the month.

Although the dynamics, according to the expert, are multidirectional. “In half of the locations, the choice in the market has increased, in half it has decreased,” he notes. The head of the secondary and out-of-town areas of Avito Nedvizhimost, Sergey Khakhulin, indicates that now 16.3% more apartments are being sold on the secondary market of Russia as a whole than in the same period a year earlier, although the volume of supply decreased by 1.3% over the month.

Demand in the secondary market, according to Mr. Popov’s observations, is recovering: user activity in early December exceeded November figures by 10%. But the expert connects this effect with seasonality: “At the end of the year, the largest number of transactions are concluded, this is due both to the payment of bonuses and to the mentality – Russians traditionally try to close large transactions before the end of the year.” Calculations of Avito Nedvizhimost point to similar dynamics: during the month, the activity of buyers increased by 2.9%, but decreased by 17.6% over the year.

Seasonality, according to Alexei Popov, will stimulate the growth of buyers’ activity until the end of the year. “Before the New Year, many people are in a hurry to resolve their housing issues, if the information background does not change, until the end of the year we do not see the prerequisites for a serious decrease in demand,” Mr. Khakhulin agrees. Ildar Khusainov adds that the owners are loyal to the buyers. “Some are in a hurry to sell their properties because of the risk of terminating or changing the conditions of concessional lending for new buildings and want to have time to buy a new apartment before the end of the year, while others are afraid of a more significant price reduction next year,” he argues.

Sergei Shloma really doubts that prices for secondary housing will grow in the near future, predicting a decrease in demand against the background of an increase in the cost of lending.

The expert suggests that in the event of the cancellation of preferential mortgages for new buildings, a significant part of buyers will move to the secondary housing segment. Developers will obviously respond to this by lowering the cost, which will then also have to be carried out by sellers in the secondary market. “In a natural way, prices will come to reasonable values, both segments of the market will be on an equal footing,” Mr. Shloma believes. Mr. Savchenko predicts a 3-5% price reduction.

Alexandra Mertsalova