“Buyers of luxury housing are optimists”

What kind of housing belongs to the elite, who buys it, how demand is changing and whether the market will be affected by judicial practice to seize luxury real estate from debtors, Kommersant was told by the managing partner of Intermark Real Estate Dmitry Khalin.

— How has the situation on the elite housing market evolved in recent years?

— After the recession in 2014–2015, the market began to recover somewhere in 2018–2019, and there was a positive trend in the number of transactions. The pandemic stopped the market for several months, but then everything was made up: the number of transactions in 2020 almost did not fall. In 2021, the growth was 30% compared to the level of 2019-2020. It was a “seller’s market” with dynamic price increases against the backdrop of the introduction of escrow accounts and rising inflation. By the beginning of the year, the price of an elite offer in new buildings was 1.48 million rubles. for 1 sq. m, this is a record for the entire time of observation. But at the beginning of 2022, the trend changed: supply exceeded demand, the price began to fall, and a “buyer’s market” formed. There were about ten sellers per buyer.

– Who is buying such housing now, has the portrait of the buyer changed?

– The elite is changing: there were bankers, oilmen, now businessmen from different sectors, top managers. It is difficult to say who will come in a year – those who adapt to new conditions. Businessmen from the sphere of logistics and cargo transportation began to buy luxury housing, until recently there were even farmers. In any case, the sphere of trade does not stop in a crisis. Perhaps it is this audience that will make the market.

– How did the military actions of the Russian Federation in Ukraine and the subsequent emigration of a significant number of Russians affect the market?

– The number of real buyers in the market is decreasing, in nine months there will be a drop of about 20%. There is a possibility that in the fourth quarter there will be a two-fold decrease in the number of transactions, and if the situation does not change, the market will continue to shrink. Businessmen buy luxury housing when they feel comfortable. So in the first half of 2023 there will definitely be a recession. The recovery of the elite segment will occur only with economic growth, and this may not happen before the second half of 2023, even according to the forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. And in general, the business needs about nine months to adapt to the new conditions.

— What kind of housing now belongs to the elite?

– There were many attempts to classify, but it did not work out clearly. Luxury housing is evolving, buyers are becoming more demanding and more pragmatic. In the early 2000s, luxury housing looked different, for example, duplex apartments were in vogue. Now the generation of buyers has changed, they live in several countries, each has four or six properties, respectively, and the requirements have changed. The area of ​​the apartment has changed a lot – from 200 sq. m, which were in the zero, by 140 sq. m. Initially, Moscow luxury real estate was always inside the Garden Ring, then it began to go up to the Third Ring, and in the last few years it has stepped over it.

The term “luxury housing” itself remains rather vague, but there are basic characteristics. These are increased requirements for the location, in Moscow – the city center without a “negative neighborhood”. Special architecture, so that each house has its own face, a unique look, this is a non-serial project, taking into account the area and its history. Finally, high-quality facade materials and engineering systems. Even studios in the corresponding house can be elite.

– Whether there is a any international standards?

– In many European countries there is no term “elite housing”. There are indicators, for example, Prime Central London, which includes 5% of the most expensive housing in London. We have a similar situation: if we take 5% of the most expensive apartments in Moscow, in fact, this will be elite housing. The average price for elite new buildings is 1.48 million rubles. for 1 sq. m, the upper bar reaches 5 million rubles. for 1 sq. m. The lower limit goes to secondary housing – from 500-600 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, these are houses built 10-15 years ago. Until February, there was a demand for new expensive housing, now it has fallen, but activity remains on the secondary housing in the elite range. Resale housing, which did not attract attention a year ago, is back in trend.

– In your opinion, an apartment with an area of ​​​​more than three social standards in the region can be classified as luxury housing (such a proposal was put forward by the Ministry of Justice)? In Moscow, this will be an apartment with an area of ​​​​more than 54 square meters. m per person.

– The criteria for luxury are difficult to assess, in Western countries, for example, the average provision of housing per person is 50-60 square meters. m, for a developed European country is the norm. In Russia, probably more than 54 square meters. m per person – an atypical story, and this is already a luxury. It turns out that the criterion, in principle, is quite objective.

– Will the criteria for classifying housing as elite be changed, taking into account the current situation in the economy and the trend towards impoverishment of the population?

— The general vector is clear: the geography of elite housing will expand. On the one hand, there is physically less space, but on the other hand, the city is developing and previously undeveloped areas are becoming suitable for life. If we draw a parallel with London, there the distribution area of ​​elite housing has expanded seven times. In Moscow, the situation is the same, the Mosfilmovsky district and Ramenki have become elite.

It is possible that the trend to reduce the area will continue. Housing is becoming less technologically advanced, infrastructure requirements are changing. Previously, there was the concept of “my house is my fortress” (club houses), when the residential complex had a swimming pool, a cafe, and other infrastructure facilities. But then the trend turned around, as it came to the realization that a pool or workout room would not replace a prestigious fitness center. Therefore, in projects with a small number of apartments, such options are abandoned.

– Is it possible that the usual “three-ruble note” in a residential area of ​​​​Moscow will be considered an elite one?

– We are unlikely to get to this, the sleeping area is still created architecturally faceless, and the quality of the houses is not the same. The same Ramenki is not quite an ordinary sleeping area. When they tried to classify housing, I had an analogy with the cabin of an airplane: there is a premium class with spacious seats, a business class with high service, and then there are comfort or economy class. The housing market is basically the same, and if you make a cool chair in the center of the cabin, then the place will not become elite anyway, because you can’t jump to another class that way, there must be a set of parameters.

– If there is a stable judicial practice for the seizure of luxury housing from citizens for debts, will this lead to a decrease in demand for the purchase of luxury real estate?

– For banks, such debtors are in any case VIP clients, and it was a last resort to bankrupt them hard with the seizure of the apartment. The bank is interested in a soft resolution of the situation, they meet halfway with such clients, they try not to seize an apartment for debts and not sell it at a bankruptcy auction, but help to sell it at a market price.

Now the bankruptcy moratorium has ended, and a large stream of bankruptcies will flow, so, perhaps, such objects will appear on the market at a low price – there are always hunters for them. In general, clients from the elite segment are not cornered people, as a rule, they have alternative sources of income. Perhaps someone will be afraid to buy an apartment because of the negative consequences, this is in principle possible. But in my experience, luxury home buyers are optimistic, forward-looking people, so they will solve future problems with the same attitude.

Interviewed by Ekaterina Volkova