Business will pay a record 300 billion rubles for low energy tariffs for citizens

The additional payment by businesses for low electricity tariffs for the population this year, according to calculations, will update last year’s record, despite the introduction of consumption limits for citizens in most regions. According to HSE estimates, the volume of load on commercial consumers at the end of 2024 will increase by 2% year-on-year, exceeding RUB 300 billion. The only way to reduce the burden on business is to gradually increase tariffs for the population, experts say. However, the constituent entities of the Russian Federation are introducing consumption standards in the household sector only formally, market participants are indignant.

The volume of cross-subsidies in the power grid complex (payments by businesses for reducing energy tariffs for the population) at the end of this year will update the record, exceeding 300.58 billion rubles, follows from an analysis by the Institute of Economics and Regulation of Infrastructure Industries of the National Research University Higher School of Economics based on tariff decisions. The indicator calculated for 2024 increased by 6.4 billion rubles, or 2% year-on-year, the actual level of the subsidy turned out to be 59 billion rubles, or a quarter, higher than the maximum level approved by the government.

The maximum level of business load has been exceeded in 63 regions, HSE analysts have calculated. Only 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, where the volume of subsidies was previously below the maximum level, reduced the subsidy by 13%, or by 7.8 billion rubles. Among them are Moscow (minus 16.7%) and St. Petersburg (minus 19.9%). The remaining regions, which already exceed the maximum level, increased the subsidy in 2024 by another 14.2 billion rubles. The largest increase is observed in North Ossetia (plus 37.7%), Stavropol Territory (plus 26%), Vladimir and Novgorod regions (more than 18%).

One of the factors determining the dynamics of cross-subsidization growth is the growth of planned revenues of electric grid organizations, recalls the author of the study, Sergei Sasim. According to his estimates, the total annual revenue for the maintenance of all network companies increased by 6%, exceeding 1.22 trillion rubles.

The number of small network companies decreased by 25%, to 893, and their planned revenue increased (to 326 billion rubles), notes Mr. Sasim.

The main innovation of 2024 is the mass introduction of tariff differentiation for the population, when the tariff increases as household consumption increases. At the end of 2023, the government forced regions to launch this mechanism when the maximum level of cross-subsidization was exceeded. The FAS reported that the mechanism has already been implemented in 53 regions. However, some regions, including the Irkutsk, Novosibirsk and Tyumen regions, exceeded the volume of subsidies, but did not introduce tariff differentiation. The service plans to seek a revision of tariffs in these regions. The volume of subsidies in the Irkutsk region is 8 billion rubles. (40% above the limit), Novosibirsk – 6.4 billion rubles. (37% above the limit), Tyumen (including Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug) – 12.9 billion rubles. (by 19%).

In practice, differentiation of tariffs for the population is used by constituent entities of the Russian Federation as a legal way to exceed the value of cross-subsidization, notes Sergey Sasim. The differentiation parameters are insufficient to change the dynamics of cross-subsidization: in particular, excessively large volumes of preferential consumption and a slight increase in tariffs with increasing volumes are established. According to Sergei Sasim, in order to reduce the annual volume of cross-subsidization in Russia by at least 1%, tariffs for the population must be additionally increased by another 0.5–1%, depending on the region. To reduce the indicator to the level of the maximum limit (241 billion rubles), the additional increase in the weighted average tariff for the population should be 9–45%, and for complete elimination – from one and a half to two times.

An increase in cross-subsidization in 2024 was expected in the context of an increase in the growth rate of household consumption and tariff containment, Natalya Nevmerzhitskaya, chairman of the board of the Association of Guaranteed Suppliers and Energy Sales Companies, told Kommersant. She believes that a gradual transition to differentiated tariffs for the population “should further contribute to solving the problem.” According to the System Operator (power system dispatcher), the population’s share of total electricity demand in 2023 was 16.5%. Citizens increased consumption by 2.6%.

The “crossroads” can only be overcome by a transition to targeted subsidies to households that really need it, according to the “Community of Energy Consumers” (unites industrial consumers of electricity): “The growth of the indicator in conditions when the regions profane the idea of ​​tariff differentiation is quite predictable. But it is difficult to justify the actions of regional regulators, since money intended for the functioning and development of the economy is withdrawn in favor of gray commerce and owners of luxury mansions.”

Polina Smertina