Bond risk – Finance – Kommersant

Banks are returning to the practice of active borrowing in the debt market. Last week, Sberbank placed bonds for 92 billion rubles, and their yield exceeded 9% per annum, which is higher than the bank’s deposit rate of the same term. The picture is similar for the products of other banks, and depending on the terms of investments and the reliability of the bank, the difference in profitability can reach 1–3 percentage points. organizations, these debts are not subject to state guarantees.

Banks return to the classics

Last week, Sberbank held its first placement this year and the largest in its history. On Thursday the state bank completed the collection applications for two issues of two-year bonds with a total volume of 120 billion rubles. On Friday, the bank announced that the final volume of placement amounted to 92 billion rubles. For both issues, the coupon rate was set at 9% per annum, which corresponds to a yield to maturity of 9.2% per annum. This is 2.2 percentage points higher than the yield offered by the bank on deposits of the same maturity. But even such conditions will be provided if the client has an annual SberPrime+ subscription.

Currently, 749 issues of bonds of 48 credit institutions are traded on the Moscow Exchange for a total amount of about 2.8 billion rubles, according to estimates by the chief analyst of debt markets at BC Region Alexander Yermak. Of these, 282 issues of classic and exchange issues of 39 banks for 2.26 trillion rubles. “About 323.4 billion rubles. accounts for 461 issues of investment bonds, the income on which depends on the underlying asset, which were issued by nine banks,” says Mr. Yermak.

Market Premium

Yields on classic bonds of other banks are also noticeably higher than on their deposits. According to Alexander Yermak, the average yield of bank bonds with a maturity of up to a year is 8.24% per annum, for bonds with a maturity of one to three years – 9.6% per annum. “Only five issues of bank bonds have a maturity of more than three years with an average yield of 9.84% per annum,” the expert notes.

At the same time, according to the Central Bank, the average maximum rate for the ten largest credit institutions in the first ten days of November did not exceed 7% per annum.

For example, the yield on bonds of Alfa-Bank with a maturity of one or two years is 8.7-9% per annum, for RSHB – 9.2-9.4% per annum. Meanwhile, the rate on deposits for comparable terms in these banks is respectively 7.5% and 7.1-7.9% per annum. “Depending on the level of credit quality, the stability of the financial risk profile of the bank, the amount of the premium varies from 1% for first-tier banks to 2-3% with a rating of BB- and below,” says Pavel Mitrofanov, portfolio manager at Sistema Capital.

Without state guarantee

However, when buying bonds, it is worth remembering that this is a more risky instrument than deposits. First, on deposits, the state guarantees repayment of up to 1.4 million rubles. in case of bank failure. There are no such guarantees for bank bonds, and in the event of problems with a credit institution, the owners of such securities will be third in line for payments, which means that there is a risk that they may not receive anything. “If a client does not have significant experience in investing in bonds, then he should focus on a bank credit rating of at least ruA / A (RU) from Expert RA or ACRA,” advises Pavel Mitrofanov.

Secondly, bonds are traded on the exchange and over-the-counter markets, and their quotes are subject to market fluctuations. “Because bond prices change daily, investors planning to withdraw money before maturity may face the risk of loss. Therefore, it is very important to clearly define your investment horizon,” says Vasily Ivanov, Managing Director of Otkritie Management Company.

Tax reassessment

However, bonds are a more liquid financial instrument than bank deposits. In the event of early closing of the deposit, the investor usually loses the accumulated income, while he can sell the bond on the stock exchange on any trading day if there is demand for it and will not lose the accumulated coupon income.

However, not all issues have liquidity. For a number of issues, a few months after their placement, quotes “disappear”.

“In most cases, there is no doubt about the solvency of the issuer, and the “disappearance” of liquidity is associated with the investor base. For example, large institutional investors bought bonds of this issue for hundreds of millions or even billions of rubles, but they are simply not interested in your several thousand or even millions of rubles, and, with the exception of reporting dates, they do not care that quotes are falling due to market transactions lower than the face value,” notes Vasily Ivanov.

Investors should take into account various taxes on these financial products. Income from deposits received in 2022 and 2023 is exempt from taxation for previous years. Coupon income on bonds is taxed at a rate of 13% (or 15% if the taxable base is more than 5 million rubles). As a result, with a coupon rate within 7–9% per annum, real income will be 0.9–1.17 percentage points lower in annual terms. True, from 2023, taxes will be returned on deposits, which will be calculated according to the new formula. 13% personal income tax will be levied on the portion of interest income that exceeds the amount of non-taxable interest income (NTI). NAP is calculated as the product of 1 million rubles. on the key rate of the Central Bank, which is valid on the first days of the month throughout the year, and not on its size on January 1, as before.

Vitaly Gaidaev