Bitcoin is tied to the USA

Quotes of the leading virtual currencies have returned to the values ​​of one and a half to three months ago, having added 8-15% over the past two days. Thus, the bitcoin rate exceeded the level of $21,000, the maximum since mid-September. Experts attribute the revival of the cryptocurrency market primarily to the positive dynamics of the US market. However, analysts warn that the growth will not last long and it is possible that the bitcoin rate will fall to $15,000 or even lower.

Most of the leading virtual currencies won back the losses of the last month. According to Coinmarketcap.com, on October 26, Bitcoin (BTC) quotes rose to $21.02 thousand, the highest value since September 13. During the day, quotes rose by 4%, and in two days they rose by more than 8%. Altcoins – Ethereum (ETH), Cardano, Dogecoin, Solana – showed more rapid growth, adding 12-17% in two days.

At the same time, the rates of crypto-currencies for most of October, and the rates of bitcoin and ether since mid-September have remained near local lows since the summer of this year. According to Cryptorg CEO Andrey Podolyan, bitcoin and ether have been “in accumulation” for more than a month, and such periods “almost always end with an impulse.”

However, the main reason for the rise in the rate of virtual currencies is the confident recovery of the US stock market in recent days. Over the previous four days, the S&P 500 added almost 6%, approaching the level of 3900 points. As Igor Pan, a specialist in digital assets of the Finmir marketplace, notes, digital assets “correlate almost 100% with the American stock market in recent months.”

According to Mr. Podolyan, if the upper border is broken in the region of $20.4–20.5 thousand and fixed above it, BTC quotes can reach $22.4–22.5 thousand, “exactly the width of the previous accumulation corridor.” At the same time, according to the founder of the ToTheMoon group of companies, Vladislav Utushkin, at the moment the nearest resistance is the level of $21.5 thousand, “a strong psychological mark that can only be overcome by significant events.”

According to the experts interviewed by Kommersant, altcoins showed greater growth, since their volatility was generally higher. In addition, Mr. Podolyan points out, some time ago “the dominance of bitcoin began to fall, and traders pay attention to this and actively buy altcoins.” In addition, speculators love altcoins, Rustam Burkeev, CEO of Letit, points out, explaining that “in recent months, bitcoin’s volatility has not been very impressive, while altcoins always have it on a grand scale – either + 15% or -40%.”

According to the Coinglass resource, against the backdrop of an unexpected “bullish” trend in the crypto market, traders lost over $1.1 billion due to the forced closure of positions.

“There have been no liquidations for a long time, and the fact that they happened is actually good for the market, as this will give it the long-awaited volatility,” Mr. Podolyan believes.

However, the current movement of quotes may well be replaced by an even deeper correction. And again, a lot because of the link to the US stock market. According to Bloomberg, analysts at Goldman Sachs predict that the S&P 500 index could lose another 25% from its current values. In this situation, Mr. Pan expects the price of bitcoin to move to $15,000 and even lower “over the coming weeks.” So far, he stressed, big business is not ready to invest because of uncertainty about the Fed’s interest rate policy.

Ksenia Kulikova