Belarusian air terminal – Newspaper Kommersant No. 17 (7462) dated 01/31/2023

As Kommersant found out, the Federal Air Transport Agency is considering the possibility of lifting all restrictions on Belavia flights to Russia. The airlines believe that strengthening the presence of the Belarusian competitor is possible only if the same conditions are provided for Russian companies. The only benefit for Russian companies in the industry is the increase in traffic from the regions to Minsk for transfer to Georgia, although the main flow from Moscow and St. Petersburg will still fly through Yerevan.

As it became known to Kommersant, the Federal Air Transport Agency is discussing the possibility of “removing all restrictions” for Belavia when flying to Russia. Sources of Kommersant in three airlines said that the agency sent telegrams last week with instructions to provide a position on this issue. A Kommersant source close to the Ministry of Transport specified that it was about lifting restrictions for the Belarusian side on the number of flights and destinations available to them to cities in the Russian Federation. Cabotage (flights between cities of the Russian Federation, for example, Minsk-St. Petersburg-Kazan) and the seventh freedom of the sky (Minsk-St. Petersburg-Tbilisi) are not yet implied. Officially, the Ministry of Transport and the Federal Air Transport Agency did not answer Kommersant.

Kommersant sent a request to Belavia, as well as the top 5 airlines, Utair, Azur Air, Azimut and Smartavia. The press service of the latter noted that they do not see “the need for additional carrying capacities on the domestic air routes of the Russian Federation.” If a positive decision is made, the airline “considers it necessary to maintain parity in the distribution of routes within the Russian Federation and Belarus.”

Interlocutors in other major airlines note that they do not see the point in such a privilege for Belarusian colleagues. One of them notes that there is insufficient demand in the regions to fly to Minsk on large-capacity aircraft, while “you can find good regional lines for aircraft with 100 seats.” At the same time, a number of interlocutors share the concern about the possible cancellation of the parity or further expansion of Belavia’s opportunities in the market. Thus, a number of companies note that the Minsk airport still offers them services at the tariffs applicable to foreign carriers, although Belavia pays at Russian airports at Russian tariffs.

With an increase in carrying capacity and increased competition, “the passenger will win in price anyway,” Kommersant’s interlocutors note. In addition, if the Federal Air Transport Agency provides for further expansion of the rights of Belavia in the seventh freedom of the sky, then the carrier could potentially open direct flights from the Russian Federation to three Georgian airports accessible to it. But Kommersant’s interlocutor in the Ministry of Transport doubts that the Georgian side will agree to such a change in intergovernmental agreements. Georgia is the only competitive advantage in the geography of Belavia flights. Otherwise, the list of countries is more meager than from Russia. From Minsk, in addition to Georgia and the Russian Federation, according to Flightradar24, the carrier flies to ten more countries. About 60 flights a week are made to Moscow, St. Petersburg, Kazan, Krasnodar, Sochi and Kaliningrad. From Russia, direct flights from Moscow are made only by Aeroflot and Pobeda, which also flies to Minsk from Pulkovo.

After EU sanctions imposed on Belavia in 2021, its fleet was reduced from 29 to 13 aircraft, of which eight are Boeing and five are regional Embraers. With such a limited offer, its boards will be effective only in certain directions “for transporting Russians to Tbilisi, Batumi and Kutaisi via Minsk,” a Kommersant source in the expert community believes.

The benefits of flights to Georgia from Moscow and St. Petersburg via Minsk will depend on the speed of connection: passengers will stay in the air for an hour longer than via Yerevan, and will pay 1-2 thousand rubles. more. Fyodor Borisov, an expert at the Institute of Transport Economics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, believes that the transfer capabilities of Minsk Airport today “should not be taken seriously.” If before the sanctions, Russians flew through Minsk to Europe and even to Kaliningrad, now this direction is predominantly “point-to-point”. At the same time, the removal of restrictions for a foreign airline may make sense to maintain partnerships, including if the situation on the Russian market results in a shortage of currently available transportation capacities. “In this case, cabotage may be inevitable, and the relatively young fleet of Belavia may not be superfluous on domestic Russian lines,” he admits.

Aigul Abdullina