Belarus has limited the supply of chicken to Russia

Belarus – one of the main suppliers of poultry meat to Russia – since the beginning of August has limited the export of products everywhere except China, explaining this by the need to saturate demand within the country. The real reason could be an outbreak of bird flu in some factories, Russian market participants believe. They expect that the decision could exacerbate the rise in the cost of chicken meat that has been taking place in the Russian Federation since the end of 2022. Rosselkhoznadzor, however, counts on meeting the needs of the domestic market by local players.

The fact that Belarus has limited the export of poultry meat from the country since August 1 was told by two sources of Kommersant in the industry. From Kommersant’s copies of letters from the Department of Veterinary and Food Supervision of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food of the country, it follows that in order to saturate the domestic market, the issuance of certificates for the export of carcasses of broiler chickens and their parts has been suspended. The same appeals state that the restrictions do not apply to exports to China and products of Servolux Agro, a large holding in the country (Petrukha brand). The Ministry of Agriculture and Food did not respond to Kommersant’s request.

The Rosselkhoznadzor told Kommersant that they have not yet received notifications from the Belarusian side about the suspension of supplies and the occurrence of epizootic foci. The same is said in Vkusvill. Other federal networks did not answer questions.

Two interlocutors of “Kommersant” in the market believe that the real reason for the restriction of exports is related to the alleged outbreak of bird flu in some poultry farms of the republic. This situation often leads to a decrease in the output of chicken meat. Traditionally, the Belarusian side does not officially report the facts of outbreaks, Kommersant’s sources add.

The National Union of Meat Processors (NSM) associates restrictions with the holding of the II Games of the CIS countries in 11 cities of the republic from August 4, during which the demand for products in the domestic market may increase significantly. Therefore, they suggest there, the measure may be short-term.

Last fall, Belarus already temporarily banned the export, including to Russia, of meat and dairy products (see Kommersant dated October 10, 2022). Then the authorities also explained the measure by the need to saturate the domestic market. This was preceded by the demand of the President of the country Alexander Lukashenko to keep domestic food prices. This factor may be the basis for restricting exports this time too, does not exclude the partner of NEO Center Albina Koryagina.

According to the agricultural agency ROSNG, in 2023 it is planned to produce 701 thousand tons of poultry meat in Belarus. The republic supplies Russia with about 10 thousand tons of poultry meat per month, of which 50% are broiler carcasses for the wholesale link, another Kommersant source in the industry says. With the production of poultry meat in the Russian Federation at 5 million tons per year, 100-120 thousand tons imported from Belarus per year account for only 2-2.5% of the total volume of the Russian market, calculated in the NSM.

The Russian market is not particularly dependent on poultry imports, local producers fully meet the needs of the domestic market, and export excess volumes, including to Belarus, Rosselkhoznadzor assured. The Russian Federation is a net exporter of poultry meat, and an increase in the profitability of sales within the country will lead to a redistribution of volumes to the local market, says Oleg Shenderyuk, director of Yakov and Partners.

According to the data of market participants available to Kommersant, in the first quarter of 2023, the import of poultry meat in general from all countries in the Russian Federation increased by 21%, to 61.9 thousand tons. The total consumption of poultry meat over this period in Russia increased by 3.2%, to 1.26 million tons.

Kommersant’s source insists that the reduction in imports may further affect the price of chicken in the country, although retailers have not yet raised its price. At a time when demand and prices are growing in the country, the message about the lack of supplies from Belarus even for a short time can become another impetus for further growth in prices, they say in the NSM, hoping that this will not happen.

Chicken meat remains the leader in terms of price increase: according to Rosstat, since December last year, the cost has increased by 11.42%. For the week ending July 31, product prices increased by 0.46%, and now the average retail price is 196.93 rubles. per 1 kg, which, according to Oleg Shenderyuk, is a historical maximum.

Albina Koryagina links the current rise in prices for chicken meat to the devaluation of the ruble and the increase in foreign exchange costs for producers. Mr. Shenderyuk adds that another reason was the outbreak of bird flu, due to which the poultry population in Russia decreased by 11 million since March 2023 and restrictions were imposed on supplies from Kazakhstan.

Ekaterina Rakitina, Anatoly Kostyrev