Banks slandered – Newspaper Kommersant No. 2 (7447) dated 01/10/2023
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Lender approval rates dropped markedly in 2022, refreshing at least two years. Experts attribute the trend to high risks, in particular against the backdrop of partial mobilization. In their opinion, it is not worth expecting an improvement in performance in 2023.
Lenders began to refuse loans to citizens more often, it follows from data National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI, in the top 3). Thus, in 2022, 26% of loan applications from individuals were approved, while in 2021 the share was higher by 7 p.p. At the same time, according to the NBKI, the highest share of approvals was observed before the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine , in January-February last year, amounting to 31%, while in November it dropped to 17% and updated a two-year low.
The BCI “Scoring Bureau” confirms the trend towards a decrease in the level of approval of applications from creditors. For all major types of bank loans in 2022, the approval level has decreased, they say, specifying that the smallest decrease is noted for credit cards – “only” by 3.8 p.p., and the maximum – for POS loans: minus 8.9 p.p. At the same time, POS and car loans showed an increase in applications for loans by 33% and 11%, respectively. For the remaining types of lending, the number of applications is decreasing, they add there.
However, among the ten largest banks interviewed by Kommersant, they assure that if they lowered the level of approval for loans, then mainly at the beginning of the year.
This, in particular, was reported in Rosbank, VTB, Otkritie. Sovcombank assured that they did not change the level of loan approval in 2022. Other top 10 banks did not respond to Kommersant’s request.
Anna Avakimyan, chief analyst at RegBlock, clarifies that when the cost of loans rises, banks “cut off not only low-quality, but generally good customers.” The decline in loan approval rates in November 2022 is due to the effect of partial mobilization, she adds.
It is no less significant that among the 4,000 creditors that provide data to the NBK, there is a significant number of microfinance organizations (MFOs, according to the Central Bank, there are about three times more of them than banks).
Microfinanciers confirm the trend towards a decrease in the level of approval of applications. “During 2022, the approval rate averaged 10% for new clients. The lowest values of the indicator were recorded in March and October. These are the months in which the peak of uncertainty fell, due to the start of the SVO and partial mobilization, respectively, ”says Sergey Vesovshchuk, CEO of Moneyman. “Today we already have vast experience in maintaining financial stability during periods of a long crisis and have more flexible scoring settings that allow us to more accurately assess risks,” adds Roman Makarov, CEO of IFC Seimer.
In 2023, experts expect an increase in the level of approvals. However, changes in regulation will affect the market: the Bank of Russia has begun to limit the issuance of loans to borrowers with increased risk, which will affect the issuance even without changes in scoring, says Valery Piven, head of the financial institutions rating group at ACRA.
“In 2023, we expect the percentage of approvals to remain at the level of 2022 or still slightly decrease,” says Andrey Ponomarev, CEO of Webbankir. “The reasons for this are the reduction in interest rates from 1% to 0.8% per day and the introduction of macroprudential limits for borrowers whose debt burden ratio (DLR) exceeds 80%. These regulatory measures will lead to more stringent customer assessments, he concludes.
Growth in the level of approval in the current situation is fraught with risks. “Against the backdrop of the uncertainty of economic development in 2023, the risk of an increase in the level of overdue debt increases,” says Konstantin Borodulin, director of NRA banking ratings. “In the event of a long-term adaptation of the economy to new conditions, the risk profile of a significant number of borrowers may worsen.” In the absence of new shocks, the president of SRO NAPCA Elman Mehdiyev believes, the growth of overdue debt in the new year will be at the level of 15-20%, and unsecured consumer loans will become its drivers.
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