Bad luck peninsula – Kommersant
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Crimea, which in recent years has remained one of the resort destinations in demand among Russians, faced a sharp decline in tourist flow with the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine. Moreover, travelers avoid trips to the peninsula, not so much for security reasons, but because of the transport collapse: the inspection of a car on the Crimean bridge can stretch for an indefinite time, a thirty-hour journey by rail attracts few, and there are not enough trains. Under these conditions, price dumping has become the main instrument of hoteliers’ struggle for the remaining guests, and tourists on social vouchers are the hope. But the number of market participants has already begun to decline.
The sharp decline in tourist interest in traveling to Crimea, which began in the spring of 2022, has only worsened this year. According to Ostrovok.ru, the region is in ninth place among domestic destinations, accounting for only 2% of bookings in Russia. A year earlier, Crimea ranked third with a share of 6%. In 2021, the peninsula accounted for 49% of total bookings, up from 41% before the pandemic in 2019.
“Last year, the number of bookings halved, in 2023 the negative trend continued, demand decreased by another 37%,” says Yury Kuznetsov, CEO of Sutochno.ru. Most travelers instead of traveling to the Crimea choose to rest in the Krasnodar Territory, Kavminvody or Abkhazia. Oksana Shustikova, Director of Development and Communications at Tvil.ru, speaks of a 50-70% decrease in the number of bookings even on the relatively low base of last year at the main Crimean resorts.
According to Sletat.ru, Crimea now accounts for only 2.3% of sales of the total volume of organized tours within the country, while at the same time, Krasnodar Territory accounts for 34.6%. Travelers actively browse, but do not purchase tours to Crimea, the company clarifies. The demand for author’s travel in Crimea, according to YouTravel.me, decreased four times in 2022. However, analysts specify that now is only the beginning of the season, and the peak of demand for the Crimea traditionally falls on June.
How big are the eyes of fear
For many tourists, Crimea seems to be an unsafe destination due to the “current information background,” says Sergey Romashkin, general director of the Dolphin tour operator. This factor, along with logistical difficulties, he calls among the main reasons for the decline in the number of trips to Crimea. According to one of Kommersant’s interlocutors at the regional tourist market, due to concerns about safety, tourists this year rarely make a decision to travel earlier than 7-10 days before travel.
Indeed, there are quite a lot of incidents related to military operations in Crimea. So, in early April, the head of the Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, said that the air defense system shot down a missile launched from Ukraine over Feodosia. At the end of March, the Ministry of Defense announced that the Russian military had prevented attempts by three unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to attack objects in Sevastopol. Prior to that, also in March, a UAV attack on Dzhankoy in the north of Crimea was reported, where the air defense system went off, and the debris damaged the house and shop, and one person was injured. Crimean senator Olga Kovitidi then noted that the purpose of the attacks was “to sow a panic mood on the peninsula.”
One of the latest high-profile incidents was a fire on April 29 at an oil depot in the Cossack Bay of Sevastopol as a result of an attack by two UAVs, one of which was shot down. Tanks with fuel caught fire on an area of 1 thousand square meters. m, no one was hurt. Governor of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozhaev also reported on attempts to attack Crimea with two UAVs on May 1. Both devices were shot down.
How big is the transport collapse
But in many ways, transport collapse remains a no less significant factor. Getting to the Crimea has become much more difficult than two years ago, Ms. Shustikova notes. Sergey Romashkin explains that this is not only about the lack of air traffic, but also about the lack of affordable train tickets. The expert gives the example of Anapa, where the restriction of the airport did not lead to a dramatic decrease in the tourist flow: “There are noticeably more trains in the direction, there is no need to go through a car inspection on the Crimean bridge.” In Crimea, according to his observations, for the May holidays, mainly trains with a long route were available.
Meanwhile, according to the Grand Service Express serving the region, as of April 24, 89.4 thousand tickets were sold to Crimea for the May holidays, which is 18.5% more than a year earlier. It is too early to compare train loading for the summer, the company says. But in general, from May to October, if there is demand on Tavria trains, up to 3 million seats can be provided to passengers. If they are all occupied, passenger traffic will increase by 36.5% year-on-year.
Grand Service Express has already opened sales for two additional trains from Paveletsky Station. If there is demand, it is realistic to launch a few more, the company assured. But the company does not have the opportunity to organize charter trips, which provide for the purchase of all places by the tour operator: the lines with a short and convenient travel time are busy, and there are no additional rolling stock.
The average cost of a purchased ticket to the Crimea from Moscow for May, according to Grand Service Express, this year amounted to 6.9 thousand rubles, from St. Petersburg – 7.7 thousand rubles. for all types of wagons. According to the company, the base fares in a compartment for the year increased by 8.1%, the indexation of travel in a reserved seat according to the decision of the Federal Antimonopoly Service also amounted to 8.1%. “But the tariffs are dynamic, and by the summer the cost of tickets is growing,” clarifies the interlocutor of “Kommersant” in the Crimean tourist market. Additional trains, as well as price cuts, in his opinion, cannot significantly affect the tourist flow: “Even with a comfortable train, the journey takes 30 hours, this suits few.”
Vehicles are also problematic. Mr. Romashkin says that many travelers are not ready to go through security checks on the Crimean Bridge, fearing that the procedure will take a long time. Now, tourists, according to the expert, it drags on an average of 40-45 minutes, but the situation may become more complicated with an increase in the flow of cars.
Another interlocutor of Kommersant at the tourist market claims that some travelers are already queuing for up to five hours. “Given the news background, there is no need to wait for the simplification of the procedure and it will only get worse,” he believes. As Kommersant’s interlocutor in Crimea notes, the authorities of the peninsula promise to provide the bridge with a capacity of about 16 thousand cars per day, but this is much less than necessary for the sustainable development of the tourism industry.
How big is the crisis discount
Crimean hoteliers are forced to respond to declining demand by lowering prices. According to Ostrovok.ru, the cost of living on the peninsula this summer will cost an average of 4.6 thousand rubles. per day, which is 14% cheaper year on year. Prices fell the most in Massandra – by 32%, to 3.2 thousand rubles. per day, in Evpatoria – by 26%, up to 3.5 thousand rubles, in Yalta – by 19%, up to 6.6 thousand rubles, in Alupka – by 18%, up to 3.6 thousand rubles.
Yuri Kuznetsov says that the cost of accommodation to attract tourists is also reduced by the owners of apartments – by an average of 12%, to 3.4 thousand rubles. per day. At the same time, in the resorts of the Krasnodar Territory, the average cost of renting tourist accommodation increased by 29% over the year, to 4.4 thousand rubles.
Managing partner of Ivashkevich Hospitality Stanislav Ivashkevich calls the reduction in the cost of accommodation an effective tool. “If a vacation in Crimea costs 30-40 thousand, and in another place – 100 thousand, there will certainly be people who will go there,” he believes.
According to the expert, hoteliers traditionally ensure the loading of facilities in places of natural disasters and negative incidents by reducing tariffs. This practice has a negative impact on profitability, but it allows most accommodation facilities to continue to work, Mr. Ivashkevich explains.
Along with the decline in prices, the peninsula as a whole begins to attract a more budgetary audience. The share of guest houses when booking accommodation in Crimea increased from 24% to 30% over the year, hotels without stars – from 14% to 16%, apartments – from 12% to 14%, calculated in Ostrovok.ru. The share of classic three-star hotels has diluted from 18% to 10% over the year. Residents of neighboring regions now rest much more often in Crimea, the road for which takes noticeably less time, says the interlocutor of Kommersant at the tourist market. It is for such guests, in the first place, in his opinion, that tariffs and promotions are adjusted.
Is it possible to restart
As a result, the scale and structure of the Crimean tourism market are beginning to change. As the expert “Contour. Focus” Anton Yakovlev, in April there were 2.36 thousand organizations operating in the region as travel companies, hotels and sanatoriums. This is 5.5% less year on year. The number of legal entities of tour operators for the year, according to analysts, decreased by 9.4%, hotels – by 4.3%.
Anton Yakovlev calls the dynamics expected: the attractiveness of recreation in the regions adjacent to the places of hostilities has generally decreased. According to him, mostly small players are closing the business.
The general director of Infoline-Analytics, Mikhail Burmistrov, suggests that so far we are talking only about the “first wave of optimization”, and in general this year the number of travel companies in Crimea may be reduced by 25%. Consolidation will take place, some of the players will switch to self-employed mode, he believes.
Participants of the peninsula’s tourism market, according to the expert, should now be supported in order to avoid the growth of social tension: historically, a fairly large part of the population in Crimea is employed in the tourism industry, and there are not many alternative jobs.
The Ministry of Economy told Kommersant that they are working together with the regional authorities and the Ministry of Transport to ensure the residual transport links with the peninsula. The tourist industry of Crimea is subject to all support measures within the framework of the national project for the development of tourism, through which the region received 1.3 billion rubles last year. Another 839 million rubles. Crimea was allocated additionally to support the tourism industry. The issue of further measures is being worked out, the Ministry of Economy added.
One of the forms of support, according to Mr. Burmistrov, could be an increase in the flow of guests to the region on social vouchers, which could be accommodated in local facilities under state guarantees. Kommersant’s interlocutor at the Crimean tourist market confirms that the flow of social vouchers “is more stable and allows some sanatoriums to maintain loading.” According to him, while part of the market participants in conditions of low depth of booking hopes for an increase in demand closer to the summer season.
Hoteliers will seek to intercept the flow of tourists in cars in price competition, but local tour operators can only reduce all possible costs, including personnel, Kommersant’s source emphasizes: “The funds promised by the authorities to support the tourism business have been allocated, but how the money will be distributed is not yet We know it’s going to be a tough season.”
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