Auto lending will continue to grow due to used cars
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The share of parallel car imports in credit sales of banks has not exceeded 6% since the beginning of the year, market participants calculated. Moreover, in their opinion, the share will decrease in the coming months. Experts and bankers agree that the car loan market will support the used car segment.
According to Otkritie Bank estimates, the share of parallel imports in the total volume of car loans in Russia does not exceed 6% in terms of the number of transactions; in general, we are talking about a little more than 18 thousand cars. “In the future, the share will remain approximately at the same level or decrease against the background of a potential reduction in the volume of gray imports in the second half of the year,” the bank believes. “The share in terms of issuance in money, taking into account the prices of “parallel” cars, may be approximately twice as high” .
According to dealers’ estimates, about half of the cars brought through parallel import channels are sold today on credit, says Marina Dembitskaya, head of Otkritie Avto. However, the growth rate of parallel imports is declining. From April to May, the number of registrations of imported cars increased by only 4%, from up to 9221 cars, while in April and May it was about 9% and 34%, respectively.
“There is a gradual saturation of demand for premium and luxury cars, which occupy an overwhelming share in this supply channel,” the expert explains. “Given the current ruble exchange rate, it becomes unprofitable for dealers to import these expensive cars.” Sales on the official market are recovering, due to both the expansion of the supply of Chinese brands and the resumption of production of Russian brands, adds Ms. Dembitskaya.
According to Frank RG, 81,000 car loans were issued in May for the amount of 117.9 billion rubles. For the second month in a row, the market shows record results in the entire history of observations (see Kommersant dated May 11, dated June 8). According to Avtostat, the share of loans in sales of new cars is at the level of 40%. About 10-15% of new cars on the market are supplied by parallel imports.
The impact of parallel imports on the car loan market in the first quarter of 2023 and in the NRA is called insignificant. “The subsequent growth of the car loan market will be supported by the replacement of Western brands with Chinese and domestic ones, as well as, as has been happening in the past few years, by an increase in the average bill in the segment,” says Irina Lapko, director of ratings for financial companies at the NRA. used cars”.
The data of the Avtostat agency confirm this: the number of loans issued in March for the purchase of new cars increased by 3.6 times compared to March 2022, and the volume – by 3.4 times, and for used vehicles – by 3.5 and 4.5 times, respectively.
Rosbank Auto does not generally distinguish used cars as an independent segment in car loans. But the bank issues loans for cars imported through parallel imports, which are sold in dealerships, says Alexei Bessonov, head of the product policy department at Rosbank Auto.
According to VTB, as the market is filled with Chinese brands and the domestic auto industry recovers in the second half of the year, the share of parallel imports in car loans will decrease. “Support for officially imported cars and locally produced cars in the form of advertising and subsidized loan programs will also play a role in this,” the bank emphasizes.
Special products for individuals to import cars from abroad have not yet gained distribution on the market, adds Dmitry Maslov, managing director of Expobank. “This is primarily due to the difficulties of cross-border transfers and a large number of counterparties in the supply chain (delivery, customs clearance, redemption abroad),” he explains. “And already imported cars in Russia can be credited under standard car loan programs and accounted for accordingly.”
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