Associated lithium – Kommersant

Oil and gas companies can earn up to $13 billion a year from the sale of lithium obtained from groundwater at their fields, analysts at Vygon Consulting have calculated. The extraction of brine metal can become the most profitable way of its production in the Russian Federation, analysts say, optimistically estimating lithium production in oil and gas fields at 397 thousand tons by 2040. So far, companies in the Russian Federation are only conducting pilot projects for the production of lithium at wells, waiting for more accurate financial results.

The income of oil and gas companies from the extraction of lithium from underground brines from wells in their fields by 2040 can reach up to $13 billion a year, analysts at Vygon Consulting have calculated. To do this, they will need to mine and sell 397 thousand tons of LCE (lithium carbonate) per year, which will cover 10% of the projected global demand for lithium. Moreover, according to optimistic forecasts, oil and gas companies can produce 56 thousand tons of LCE per year by 2030, and 206 thousand tons by 2035.

So far, oil and gas companies of the Russian Federation do not conduct industrial production of lithium at their wells, but only announce pilot projects. The most famous is the extraction of lithium from the groundwater of Gazprom’s Kovykta deposit, which is scheduled to start by 2025 at an experimental well. The state-owned company told Kommersant that they were conducting geological exploration. Analysts at Vygon Consulting note that the lithium resource base is concentrated in the Leno-Tunguska oil and gas province, in the Ural-Volga region and in the North Caucasus. There, Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, LUKOIL and Tatneft are producing, where they did not comment on Kommersant.

The cost of lithium mining from groundwater, according to Vygon Consulting, may turn out to be comparable to ore projects, and on the finished oil and gas infrastructure, the figure may be even lower due to the reduction in CAPEX. Thus, in the extraction of lithium and related minerals (bromine, iodine, magnesium) from brines of an already drilled well, the cost will be $4–5 thousand per ton of LCE, which is comparable to the figures for similar projects in Argentina, Bolivia and the United States. World prices for lithium are several times higher: now the cost of a ton is $60,000, and by 2040 it may gradually drop to $35,000.

So far, the most developed projects in the Russian Federation involve the extraction of lithium from ore. The largest project in the Murmansk region at the Kolmozerskoye field is being carried out by Rosatom and Norilsk Nickel: they plan to produce 45 thousand tons of lithium carbonate and hydroxide per year by 2030 (see Kommersant dated February 8). By 2030, all projects for the extraction of lithium from ore in the Russian Federation plan to produce 68 thousand tons of LCE, and demand within the Russian Federation, according to Vygon Consulting, will be only 20.5 thousand tons.

Analysts at Vygon Consulting believe that Russia will export the lion’s share of lithium abroad due to the growing global shortage. According to their forecasts, global demand for lithium due to the growth of sales of electric vehicles by 2040 could reach approximately 4.5 million tons of LCE, while the supply will be only 3.5 million tons. Russia could cover more than half of the deficit with the extraction of 0.6 million tons of LCE per year from brines and ore. And the lithium industry of the Russian Federation in terms of export earnings could take fifth place, bypassing ferrous metals, coal and wheat, the study emphasizes. “For a large-scale deployment of lithium production in the oil and gas fields, Russian companies already need to include this option in their development strategies,” says Grigory Vygon, Managing Director of Vygon Consulting.

Sergey Grishunin, managing director of the NRA rating service, notes that it will be possible to draw conclusions about the prospects for brine production at oil and gas fields only after the launch of the project at the Kovykta field. It is important to make sure that the cost of mining will actually be acceptable and lower in level than the cost of ore mining. The expert believes that Russia will be able to sell lithium to China, India, Vietnam and other countries in Asia and the Middle East.

Polina Smertina, Tatyana Dyatel, Dmitry Kozlov