And scheduled leave – Newspaper Kommersant No. 187 (7388) dated 10/08/2022

After air travel prices began to return to pre-mobilization levels (see Kommersant of October 7), sales of organized tours also began to gradually recover. Tourists have even begun to make plans for the New Year, judging by the fact that tours are being booked for holidays. Among the popular destinations, as before the special operation, are Turkey, Egypt, and the Maldives. But so far, demand has fully recovered only in the Moscow region: according to market participants, those Muscovites who are going on vacation, just in case, do not plan to go far from home.

Organized tour sales last week recovered to mid-September levels after a slump that began on September 21st. Travelata.ru provides such data, indicating that sales began to recover on October 1–2. Evgeny Danilovich, Managing Director of Sletat.ru, notes that in his company this week the total number of bookings has almost doubled compared to last week.

Other market participants have more cautious estimates. Vice-President of the Russian Union of Travel Industry Dmitry Gorin speaks only of a partial recovery: if at the end of September bookings fell by 50-80% at once, now sales are 30% below the September average. Among the positive incentives, the expert calls the stabilization of the situation with air tickets: their cost in foreign directions has returned to the usual values ​​for consumers.

Intourist representative Daria Domostroyeva notes that her company’s average daily sales have recovered by 80-90%. “The situation is normalizing due to the fact that the fears associated with the closure of borders have disappeared among tourists,” she notes. Sergey Romashkin, general director of the Dolphin tour operator, adds that at the peak of the decline, sales were down 55% from last year, now the gap has narrowed to 35%. Tez Tour notes stable demand, but indicates a low depth of bookings.

According to Travelata.ru estimates, from September 6 to October 6, Turkey remained the most requested destination for organized tourists, accounting for 49% of bookings. Russia (27%), Egypt (14%) and the United Arab Emirates (5%) follow. According to Daria Domostroeva, sales for the New Year holidays are also quite active at the moment: tours to the Maldives, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Venezuela and Russia are being booked. Tez Tour names Egypt, Turkey, UAE, Maldives and Thailand as the most popular destinations.

Sergei Romashkin calls the Moscow region the only domestic destination where sales have fully recovered.

The region has taken second place in terms of booking rates after the Krasnodar Territory, although it usually does not rise above the fifth or sixth. The expert connects this dynamics with the crisis redistribution of demand: during periods of instability, Muscovites, who account for a significant share of sales of organized tours, traditionally prefer to relax without leaving far from their place of permanent residence.

The tourist industry faced a collapse in sales at the end of September due to the alarming mood of consumers, accompanying the decision of the authorities on partial mobilization. Now, according to Daria Domostroyeva, the travel industry is busy processing refunds to customers who were mobilized or faced problems when traveling abroad. In total, we are talking about less than 5% of tours booked for the fall, she notes. The amount of the refund, according to the expert, is individual in each case, since not all foreign air carriers consider the decision to mobilize or the refusal to travel abroad as a reason to return funds for tickets.

At the same time, in general, the problem of the return of funds, apparently, will remain relevant for the tourist industry: the interlocutor of Kommersant in the tourist market states that, according to the decision of the border service, 3-4 people are now consistently missing from each flight departing abroad. Sergey Romashkin doubts that the general tourist activity will be able to fully recover in the near future. The expert expects the situation to stabilize after the completion of the mobilization campaign in major cities of the country. A similar position is held by Dmitry Gorin, stating that many tourists are in a waiting position.

Alexandra Mertsalova