Analysis of the hotel market for three quarters of 2023

The growth of business and tourist trips within Russia led to an increase in the number of hotel guests by 16% for the first eight months of 2023. Positive dynamics are observed in Moscow and St. Petersburg, in contrast to the Krasnodar Territory, where hotel operators are faced with a decrease in demand due to increased prices and competition with other destinations. Further growth of the hotel market as a whole is limited largely due to the reduction in effective demand.

In January-August of this year, 53.14 million people stayed in collective accommodation facilities throughout Russia – this is 16% more year-on-year, Kommersant calculated based on Rosstat data. The total income of such facilities over the same period increased by more than 6%, to 560.14 billion rubles.

In Moscow hotels, the number of guests in January-August increased by 11% year-on-year, to 7.3 million people. According to this indicator, the city has become the largest in Russia. Deputy Director of the Hospitality Division of CORE.XP Dmitry Parinos draws attention to the confident recovery of the main operating indicators of Moscow hoteliers. According to him, the average occupancy of facilities for eight months was 69.9%, increasing by 14.6 percentage points (p.p.) year on year, the tariff increased by 15.6%, to 6 thousand rubles. per night, and the profitability per room increased by 32.6%, to 4.2 thousand rubles. per day. This is facilitated, among other things, by the appearance of tourists from China, Iran, and India in Moscow, notes NF Group partner Olga Shirokova, adding that five-star hotels showed a noticeable increase in occupancy.

Over the course of eight months, 3.4 million people stayed in hotels in St. Petersburg, an increase year on year of 23%. The average occupancy level of facilities in the city was 65.7%, according to CORE.XP. CMWP partner Marina Smirnova speaks of an increase in the tariff in St. Petersburg by 26% year-on-year, to 6.8 thousand rubles. per day. “The business events segment has almost recovered to pre-pandemic levels, which is helping to increase hotel occupancy in the two major cities,” she explains.

At the same time, in the Krasnodar Territory, according to Rosstat, the number of guests in hotels in January-August decreased by 18% year-on-year, to 5.8 million people. These data coincide with previous estimates of the tourism industry, which indicated lower-than-expected summer tourist flows in the region due to the cold start to the holiday season, transport problems due to Russian military operations in Ukraine, and growing competition from Turkish resorts (see chart). “Kommersant” dated August 17).

Dmitry Parinos notes that in the coastal zone of Sochi, following the results of eight months of this year, hotel occupancy decreased by 13.8% year-on-year. The reason, he said, “is the aggressive policy of increasing the cost of hotel services in the city in recent years.” According to expert estimates, the cost of living in Sochi hotels increased by 10.7% over the year, to 7.2 thousand rubles. per night.

Another regional market where the occupancy of collective accommodation facilities has noticeably dropped is Kamchatka, where in 2022 this figure, on the contrary, grew. Over the eight months of 2023, the number of guests in hotels in the region decreased by 13% year-on-year, to 240 thousand people. At the same time, an increase of 4.5 times, to 265.5 thousand people, was shown by hotels in Dagestan, 2.5 times, to 1.84 million, in the Leningrad region, doubled, to 143.1 thousand, in Adygea . CORE.XP notes an increase in hotel occupancy in the Kaliningrad region by 16 p.p. year-on-year, to 73.8%.

In the future, the hotel market does not have many opportunities for growth, warns Marina Smirnova. “Elective demand is not growing, cashback for domestic holidays has been cancelled, subsidies for air travel in some destinations have been reduced,” she lists. Ivashkevich Hospitality partner Stanislav Ivashkevich adds that the capabilities of the existing hotel stock are limited: practically no new large properties have been opened in recent years. However, now investor interest in the segment has begun to recover. According to Avito Real Estate estimates, demand for the purchase of hotels in September increased by 7% year-on-year, in August – by 13%.

Alexandra Mertsalova, Anatoly Kostyrev