All went on air – Newspaper Kommersant No. 65 (7510) dated 04/14/2023

The Ether exchange rate has exceeded $2,000, having updated the maximum since August 2022. Earlier, the bitcoin exchange rate exceeded the level of $30,000, having fixed in the region of a ten-month high. In addition to US macroeconomic indicators, the growth of the ether exchange rate is facilitated by the renewal of its network. But while the movement of cryptocurrency rates does not look stable. Many risks remain on the market, including regulatory ones, experts warn.

According to CoinMarketCap, on April 13, the price of Ether (ETH) exceeded $2,000, hitting its highest since August 2022. During the day, the second most popular currency added 5.1%. Just two days earlier, on April 11, the bitcoin rate also soared by more than 5%, eventually fixing itself above the $30,000 level, the highest since June 2022. Other popular cryptocurrencies – BNB, Cardano, Dogecoin, Polygon – also showed a growth of quotations by 2.5-6%.

Experts interviewed by Kommersant attribute the growth primarily to a slowdown in inflation in the United States. According to the results of March, it was only 5% against 6% in February, while analysts expected the figure at around 5.2%.

In fact, annual inflation in the country has returned to the values ​​of May 2021. Now investors expect that the slowdown in inflation will also affect the upcoming Fed decision on the key rate, says Alexander Mamasidikov, CEO and founder of MinePlex Digital Banking. Now the rate is at the level of 4.75-5% per annum. The next Fed meeting will be held May 2-3.

Also, fears about problems with large cryptocurrency exchanges faded into the background, the topic of the collapse of FTX was taken into account in prices and became neutral, says BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov. Until recently, the FTX crypto exchange ranked second in terms of assets after Binance, but on November 11 last year, after a series of scandals, it filed for bankruptcy.

At the same time, the correlation between bitcoin and ether rates can now be broken, says Dmitry Dolgov, CEO of WhatToFarm, an analytical service for the DeFi market. The current increase in the ETH rate is no longer associated with macroeconomic, but with internal project news, Mr. Mamasidikov explained. So, the Shapella update was activated on the Ethereum network, which led to the unlocking of ETH coins on a smart contract launched in December 2020. For the past two and a half years, stakers who sent cryptocurrency to this smart contract could not withdraw it. Therefore, in the future, a decrease in the exchange rate of the ether is not ruled out, since many investors may start selling off the accumulated coins, warns Nikita Vassev, co-founder of 0xprocessing.

At the same time, the correlation of the crypto market with real assets, in particular US stocks, has noticeably decreased, but the connection with gold has increased, notes Vladimir Smerkis, regional director of Binance. According to Investing.com, gold again topped $2,000 a troy ounce on Thursday. Analysts also note that the correlation of bitcoin with the US dollar remains negative, whose position in the world market weaken last five weeks.

Despite the fact that cryptocurrencies are considered one of the most risky investments, many investors do not cease to consider the asset as a protective one, and not only from inflation, but also from traditional assets, Mr. Smerkis noted.

At the same time, experts note that there is still no certainty regarding the further movement of the cryptocurrency market. The optimistic scenario assumes that the bitcoin rate will rise to $38,000 by the end of May, while the negative one will decrease to $25,000, Alexander Mamasidikov predicts. If it manages to gain a foothold above $31.1 thousand, “a direct road to $34-35 thousand will open”, estimates Vladislav Antonov.

At the same time, there are many risks in the cryptocurrency market, experts interviewed by Kommersant warn. Among them, Mr. Antonov clarifies, are potential SEC claims against the Binance exchange and other large market participants, the possibility of the collapse of small exchanges due to errors in capital management.

Ksenia Kulikova