Alcohol is being considered for the New Year – Kommersant FM
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Foreign alcohol on the eve of the New Year may rise in price by 20-30%; importing companies spoke about this increase in prices compared to 2022. Among the main reasons are the weakening of the ruble and the tightening of customs duties. Prices for French champagnes and cognac, as well as Scottish and Irish whiskey, will increase the most, up to 40%. Currently, drinks from brands such as Dom Perignon, Veuve Clicquot and Macallan are imported through parallel imports. Spanish wines that go directly to Russia will rise in price a little less.
The Russian authorities increased duties on the import of wine from unfriendly countries in the summer of 2023. The rate increased from 12.5% to 20%. In this case, the amount must be at least $1.5 per liter. New batches are arriving at higher prices, and the consumer will feel this at the beginning of winter, noted Fortwine executive director Alexander Lipilin:
“Firstly, since the beginning of the year the exchange rate has changed by almost 30%. Secondly, and this is even more important, customs duties have increased. This applies to almost all wine from so-called unfriendly countries. There are still drinks from Georgia, South Africa, Chile and Argentina.
New batches are already arriving with a different duty, while this is not very noticeable in retail and restaurants, because the companies had large stocks. But closer to the New Year, as people buy alcohol for holidays and as gifts, prices will begin to rise.
This will be especially noticeable in the sparkling wine segment, since there the share of producing countries for which the duty has increased is even greater. We expect that prices for inexpensive wines in the category up to 1 thousand rubles will increase by 25-40%, because the lower level is cut off due to duties. If we are talking about French champagne from 3-4 thousand rubles, then the growth there will be about 15-20%, maybe 30%.
At the same time, the manufacturers themselves raised prices at the beginning of the year, some even lowered them, because sales volumes in the world after the COVID-19 pandemic are falling. To a greater extent, high inflation prevails in Europe, but this contribution is still quite small.
There is some redistribution between New Zealand category producers; not all of them work with Russia. There are similar problems with champagne, some popular brands are not supplied or are supplied through parallel imports, but this is also a small part.”
As noted by importing companies, there are still stocks of imported alcohol in the warehouses of distributors and retailers, including companies that have left the Russian market. So on the eve of the New Year there should be no shortage.
At the same time, consumers are actively switching to not the most famous brands of champagne, emphasized Maxim Lesnichenko, managing partner of the Drinx wine library chain and the consulting company Wine Direct: “Most buyers choose wine based on the price point that is comfortable for them, for example, 1 thousand rubles . or 1.5 thousand rubles. You can always find a normal level drink for the money.
For popular categories that are well-known, Veuve Clicquot or Moet & Chandon, prices have doubled, as they are supplied through parallel imports. But the light has not come down on these brands; there are excellent brands that are much better and more interesting in quality and taste.
Whiskey has other triggers for increases, including scarcity. If there is little of it, it means it becomes more expensive. Previously, a bottle of very expensive whiskey cost 30-40 thousand rubles, but now it will cost 60-70 thousand rubles.
Logistics for parallel imports has its own characteristics, so Russian players can buy 100 bottles from one importer, 200 from another, and so on. They don’t have everything in stock to satisfy all the consumers here.
If we talk about Japanese whiskey, these brands have been represented on the domestic market before. But these brands are more expensive than Scottish ones in the middle price segment.”
According to Rosalkogolregulirovanie, in 2022, the production of sparkling wines in the country increased by 25% year on year. However, in other categories of alcohol it is not yet possible to replace imported products, emphasized Leonid Rafailov, general director of the AST company: “95 percent of Italian wines are supplied officially. The supply has not worsened, there are fairly stable supply routes that are interchangeable, and there are collateral routes.
Meanwhile, there are no alternatives, for example, to classic whiskey producers from Scotland or Ireland. In terms of price/quality ratio, no one can give the same offer.
As for wines, almost 60% of consumption now comes from Russian drinks. In both the middle and low price categories, the consumer is actually already switching.
As for expensive wines, French, Italian and Spanish producers dominate among them. But Russian supply is also growing.
If we talk about strong alcoholic drinks, then this is traditionally vodka. There are some very good gins that dominate this category on the shelf today too. With whiskey, cognac and brandy everything is more complicated, but in the low price category there is a very large offer that can satisfy a not very discerning buyer.”
Consumption of strong alcohol, according to Finexpertiza analysts, grew by more than 7% in Russia last year. Wine consumption, on the contrary, decreased by 5.5% year on year.
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