Airlines may not have enough time and money to buy Western planes

As Kommersant found out, at least five Russian airlines have received permits for insurance settlement with Western aircraft owners. We can talk about 80-90 aircraft. However, companies run the risk of failing to close deals on time, since the Ministry of Transport has not yet determined the criteria for receiving 300 billion rubles. from the National Welfare Fund, which the government planned to use to buy aircraft. Of this amount, a third, according to Kommersant, has already been spent on the needs of Aeroflot, and other carriers fear that in the end they may not receive funds at all.

As it became known to Kommersant, large private air carriers are concerned about the lack of criteria for allocating funds from the National Welfare Fund to buy aircraft from Western owners. Criteria that will determine which airlines and in what amount will be able to receive part of the 300 billion rubles. concessional financing from the NWF, was to be prepared by the Ministry of Transport.

The problem was discussed in mid-July at a meeting with representatives of the Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Economy and most major carriers. The bottom line is that at the moment, according to Kommersant, at least five airlines, not counting the Aeroflot group, have been able to agree on the terms of the insurance settlement and are ready to close leasing contracts (see “Kommersant” dated June 16).

The agreement covers 80-90 aircraft (including 47 Aeroflot), but there are less than three months left to close the deals, since most companies have their permits received from EU regulators expire before September 30.

According to Kommersant’s interlocutor in an international leasing company, an extension of the term is unlikely.

According to a Kommersant source close to the Ministry of Transport, the terms of the deals were agreed upon “or very close to it” in Aeroflot, S7, Ural Airlines, Rusline and charter iFly. The latter, according to him, plans to conduct a deal for three Airbus A330 lessor Air Lease Corporation (USA), and the operation has received an OFAC license valid until October. Failed to contact iFly.

Ural Airlines managed to obtain US and EU permission for a deal to close contracts for 19 Airbuses (out of 52 in the current fleet), Kommersant was told in the press service of the airline. Rusline, according to Kommersant’s sources in the market, intends to buy eight regional CRJs from a foreign owner close to the company. Two more interlocutors told Kommersant that their companies had already bought several aircraft at their own expense.

S7 declined to comment. The interlocutor of Kommersant in the Aeroflot group replied that the announced insurance settlement process was “in a high degree of readiness” and the group still “plans to carry out an insurance settlement with all foreign lessors.”

But to the lack of time is added the lack of funds.

Initially, the government allocated 300 billion rubles for the purchase of ships. from the FNB. At the moment, according to Kommersant sources, approximately 90-100 billion rubles. already spent on the acquisition of Aeroflot 10 Boeing 777-300ER.

Some of Kommersant’s interlocutors believe that the amount of spending from the NWF was initially calculated only for the needs of the group. In March, presidential aide Igor Levitin said that the funds were allocated to the industry as a whole, and “how much and which airline will receive is the prerogative of the Ministry of Transport.” However, according to Kommersant’s interlocutors in seven private airlines, so far the Ministry of Transport has not submitted for discussion either the settlement procedure or the criteria for selecting applicants for NWF funds.

According to a Kommersant source close to the Ministry of Transport, the document regulating “financing conditions for all airlines” is in the “process of final approvals.” The Ministry of Transport itself, the government apparatus, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economy declined to comment.

Whether all the NWF funds will be spent on Aeroflot depends on which aircraft the company decides to buy.

With the purchase of 23 wide-body and 24 narrow-body aircraft, the amount could be about 245–250 billion rubles, according to Elena Sakhnova, an analyst at the My Investments channel. If we are talking only about narrow-body airliners, she clarifies, then we can talk about 117-120 billion rubles.

At this stage, Aeroflot, according to Kommersant’s information, was actively discussing the possibility of buying out at least 81 more aircraft. The purchase of such a number of narrow-body aircraft will require an additional 200 billion rubles, Elena Sakhnova believes.

The entire S7 fleet, according to the expert, can cost about 193 billion rubles, Ural Airlines – about 77 billion rubles. A Kommersant source in an international leasing company agrees with these calculations, but doubts that Aeroflot will be able to buy all the planes: “This is an extremely difficult process.”

Kommersant’s interlocutors in the airlines admit that the funds from the NWF “are not enough for everyone,” but they hope to have time to finance at least part of their transactions from these funds.

Several sources of Kommersant say that the Ministry of Transport offered them to consider buying an aircraft on their own with credit funds. “But there were no attempts to discuss in detail preferential bank loans or compensation guarantees,” one of them clarifies.

Preferential loans from the NWF were supposed for a period of 15 years at 1.5% per annum. In case of acquisition at the expense of the National Welfare Fund, the aircraft will be registered as the property of the leasing company NLK-Finance, subordinate to the Federal Air Transport Agency. According to a Kommersant source in the government, many airlines, including the largest private players, point to the risks of transferring all aircraft to a monopoly structure: they are worried about a potential increase in rates and non-renewal of leasing contracts (see “Kommersant” dated July 11).

In any case, it makes sense to continue trying to acquire aircraft, Oleg Panteleev, head of Aviaport, believes. Aircraft freed from double registration, he said, can be delivered to those international destinations where it is unacceptable. “For small airlines, this is critical,” the expert emphasizes. Also, in his opinion, owned aircraft “will add operational flexibility to carriers”: if necessary, they will be able to legally lay them down, sell them, and dismantle them for spare parts without fear of potential lawsuits from Western owners.

Aigul Abdullina