Agritel predicts that Russia will dominate the grain market – Kommersant
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Russia will continue to dominate the grain market in 2023-24 despite “uncertainties affecting the safety of navigation” in the Black Sea. This is reported by the French newspaper Le Figaro with reference to data from Agritel (Argos Media).
“Russian dominance will continue, and it is necessary in an unstable global balance,” said Alexander Marie, chief agricultural analyst at Agritel, at a press conference in Paris on August 24.
According to the forecast of the US Department of Agriculture, world wheat supplies in 2023-2024 will decrease by 3 million tons, to 793 million tons due to lower production in Canada and Europe. In this context, Russia is strengthening its position as the world’s leading exporter with an “export capacity of 49 million tons of wheat,” Agritel is convinced. Russia’s share in world trade is 23% with a production volume of 87.5 million tons, which is “significantly higher than the average for the past five years,” the company said.
“The Black Sea region, from Russia to Bulgaria through Ukraine and Romania, accounts for 40% of world wheat exports. Today, 30% of the export capacities of the Black Sea are idle (the ports of Odessa, Nikolaev, Berdyansk and Mariupol), and 54% are under threat due to the escalation of tension,” Mr. Mari specified.
According to Le Figaro, shelling threatens the Ukrainian ports of Reni and Izmail on the Danube River, as well as the Russian ports of Rostov-on-Don (in the Sea of Azov) and Novorossiysk (in the Kerch Strait). According to Alexander Marie, in recent years, Russia has “established itself in the international market due to the regularity of its production and the quality of cheaply sold wheat, while improving its supply capabilities.” He called maritime security the biggest risk to supplies.
On July 18, Russia withdrew from the grain deal, which involved the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea. August 16 the first ship from Odessa took advantage grain corridor opened by Ukraine. Russian authorities too study alternatives to the grain deal. Ankara wants to persuade Moscow to resuscitate it, proposals on this issue are also trains UN.
Details – in the publication “Kommersant” “Türkiye calls everyone to the table”.
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