Following the lifting of the embargo on gasoline exports, its quotes on the stock exchange, which had been declining since the middle of last week, began to rise again. Thus, AI-92 gasoline rose in price by 1.5%, AI-95 by 1.6%. The government announced the lifting of the gasoline export embargo on November 17, two months after it was imposed. Kommersant's interlocutors in the industry attribute rising prices to psychological factors.
The cost of AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline on the SPbMTSB exchange increased by 1.5% and 1.6%, to 49.4 thousand and 52.7 thousand rubles. per ton, respectively, but is still at the levels of early May 2023 and much lower than the peaks of August-September. Gasoline actively lost in price last week and resumed its growth on November 20. At the same time, the cost of summer and winter diesel fuel increased by 0.6% and 1%, to 56.3 thousand and 73.9 thousand rubles. per ton respectively.
Fuel prices have risen again amid rising oil prices, and also after the government completely canceled ban on gasoline exports.
However, although the Ministry of Energy announced the end of the embargo on November 17, regulations in this regard have not yet been published.
Gasoline export ban acted almost two months, in contrast to the embargo on the export of diesel fuel, which was eased two weeks after its introduction due to the threat of overstocking of refineries. The purpose of the ban on fuel exports was to reduce wholesale prices, which had soared to record levels, and also to eliminate shortages in the domestic market. As a result of these tough measures, the wholesale cost of AI-92 by the end of October decreased by 30%. “Over the past two months, while maintaining high volumes of oil refining at the refinery, saturation of the domestic market has been ensured and a surplus in the supply of motor gasoline has been created, including in the exchange sales channel,” the Ministry of Energy reported.
According to a Kommersant source in the industry, the rise in prices on the stock exchange the day after the lifting of restrictions is associated with psychological factors, while the level of supply is still high, and the increase in demand on the stock exchange is followed by an increase in sales.
Buyers are afraid that after the lifting of export restrictions, the goods will go abroad and prices will rise again, which is why they are increasing the purchase of gasoline, he notes. Kommersant’s interlocutor believes that the observed rise in prices will be short-term.
The ban on fuel exports was in effect until the State Duma didn't accept a project to adjust the damper - subsidies to refineries for supplying fuel to the domestic market. They have been halved since September, which was one of the reasons for the rise in prices. The government eventually decided to return the previous full payments for the damper, but agreed on the relevant amendments, including compensation for budgetary expenses for these purposes, only in November. Most of the costs will be offset by an increase in the mineral extraction tax on gas for all producers, as well as an increase in the mineral extraction tax on gas condensate for Gazprom.
The ban on the export of diesel fuel by rail remains in force for now. The decision to maintain the embargo is due to the fact that at the beginning of winter there is an acute problem of a shortage of winter diesel fuel, the cost of which is traditionally growing and is now near historical highs. According to Kommersant’s interlocutors, it is likely that the embargo on the export of diesel fuel will be completely lifted only in April-May, since the spring sowing campaign begins after winter. In addition, fuel consumption is increasing due to military and logistics needs in new regions.