a declining threat but boosted by online propaganda and the Covid

There are several ways to read the latest report published in July by the European body Europol on the situation and trends of terrorism in Europe. The most factual can be summed up in a figure: we have gone, from 2020 to 2021, from 57 to 15 attacks and plans for foiled attacks on European soil. This is therefore a spectacular decrease compared to previous years, marked by a substantial wave of attacks. But it is too early to say that the episode, which opened in 2013-2014, is now over. Europol’s report does not yet note any consequences following the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in August 2021.

Among the four attacks carried out in 2021, three came from the jihadist movement (in France, Spain and Germany) and one from the ultra-left. This threat remains the most important today in Europe, with 11 attacks and projects out of the 15 identified. France, targeted by an attack at the Rambouillet police station, and four projects, is the most affected country within the EU.

Read also: Article reserved for our subscribers Nathalie Goulet: “Cryptocurrencies could supply weapons to organized crime, jihadist networks and white supremacist circles”

One thing seems certain: the major jihadist organizations, whether Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State (IS) organization, have the greatest difficulty in the world in carrying out large-scale attacks. Most of the jihadist attacks were committed by isolated individuals, foreigners or of foreign origin, indoctrinated on the Internet. Another sign of this weakening of the jihadist organizations: the rudimentary means (knife or ram vehicle) used in the context of the attacks carried out.

“Lone actors affiliated with jihadist or ultra-right extremism remain the main threat of potential terrorism and violent attacks within the EU,” emphasizes the Executive Director of Europol, Catherine De Bolle, in her introductory remarks to the report.

Mutations to the ultra-right

While the number of attacks and planned attacks from the ultra-right remains low – 3 in 2021 against 4 in 2020 – the number of suspects arrested within this movement is growing rapidly – ​​from 34 to 64 in one year −, while the number of suspects from the jihadist movement remains stable (254 in 2020 and 260 in 2021, including 96 for France alone). After France, the countries where jihadist activities have given rise to the greatest number of arrests are Spain and Germany, targeted by attacks in 2021, then Austria, still under the influence of that of Vienna in autumn 2020 and, finally, Belgium.

You have 39.92% of this article left to read. The following is for subscribers only.