14.5% of the space in the shopping centers of Moscow is empty
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Despite the minimum commissioning of new space, the vacancy rate in the shopping centers of Moscow was at a record level over the past 14 years – 14.5%. Consultants believe that the market has reached the bottom, after which the share of vacant premises will begin to decrease due to the active work of Russian brands and retailers from Turkey and Belarus. But in order to attract new tenants, property owners have to significantly reduce rates. This forces developers to freeze new projects.
The share of vacant space in shopping centers in Moscow in the first half of 2023 reached 14.5% – this is the highest figure since 2009, according to Kommersant’s study of the Magazin Shops company. Analysts emphasize that the current jump in vacancy rates turned out to be more significant than in 2015, when Russia after the annexation of Crimea for the first time felt serious sanctions pressure from the US and the EU. At that time, 10% of the space in the capital’s shopping centers was empty.
At Nikoliers, the current vacancy rate is estimated at 13.5%, at NF Group – at 14.2%. The reason for the increase in the share of vacant space in recent months was the completion of lease agreements for international brands that announced their withdrawal from the Russian market. Now, in general, such retailers retain no more than 20% of lease agreements, says Alexei Vanchugov, managing partner of Vanchugov and Partners. The rest of the space under the former stores of Western chains has been transferred to other companies, or a search for tenants is underway, he adds.
High vacancy is observed with minimal commissioning of new shopping centers, which is unconventional for the segment. According to Magazin Magazin, only one object was opened in the first half of the year – Mitino Park with an area of 27 thousand square meters. m. The NF Group says that it has announced the release of several more shopping centers for 167.2 thousand square meters by the end of this year. m, but not the fact that this will happen. Evgenia Khakberdieva, director of the retail real estate department at NF Group, explains that now the owners of the objects are mainly changing the concepts of existing shopping centers. Point Estate Sales Director Roman Amelin says that developers do not yet see any particular prospects in this segment and freeze their plans.
Nikoliers partner Anna Nikandrova says that the vacancy rate is already on the decline and “the market has overcome the most difficult period.” She connects this with the opening of stores of new companies, such as the Daher Group, which took the place of the Spanish Inditex, and the activity of Russian brands. Evgenia Hakberdieva states that among the new players in the Russian retail market, there are mainly retailers from Turkey and Belarus. According to the 2GIS service, the number of clothing stores in million-plus cities increased by 6% over the year, to 28.2 thousand, in Moscow – by 9%, to 7.97 thousand.
Guzel Gumerova, head of Astrum Real Estate, is counting on a reduction in vacancies in the third quarter: “Many seek to conclude contracts in order to have time to open stores by the high autumn season.” According to Svetlana Yarovaya, director of the RRG brokerage department, now retailers are ready to rent premises already finished, trying to minimize investments.
Tenants are trying to hold tough negotiations with the owners of shopping centers, as they believe that they can achieve a significant reduction in rates against the backdrop of a growing share of vacant space, Mr. Vanchugov notes. He cites as an example one of the chains of electrical goods, which traditionally paid 5% of turnover for store rent. “Now they are seeking to conclude new contracts at 3.5-4%, stating that they have already completed the discovery plan,” he says. The freed premises, according to Mrs. Yarovaya, are often used by the owners of the objects themselves, opening their own department stores, which allows them to fill empty areas.
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