Will Europe take advantage of the surviving Nord Stream 2 line: experts gave an answer

Russia gives EU countries a chance to avoid energy crisis in winter

The European Union is able to protect its members from the energy crisis that may arise in winter due to the restriction of gas supplies from Russia. According to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, in order to maintain a stable supply of hydrocarbons, the EU authorities only need to allow the launch of the second string of Nord Stream 2, which remained intact after sabotage on the Russian export route. The proposal is quite tempting, as it will allow the countries of the Old World to stabilize the situation on the domestic fuel market. But for its implementation, a number of economic sanctions against Moscow will have to be lifted.

The terrorist attacks that took place on September 26 simultaneously on two Russian gas pipelines to Europe – Nord Stream-1 and Nord Stream – 2, closed the possibility of full-fledged operation of these routes, and the first of them, until recently, was considered the main channel through which Europeans received “blue fuel” from our country. The international consortium Nord Stream, responsible for the shipment of hydrocarbons through the first pipeline, said that the preliminary damage assessment is “unprecedented”, so it is not yet possible to estimate the timing of the repair. Meanwhile, the sabotage failed to completely disconnect Europe from Russian energy resources: as a result of the explosions, three of the four lines of the Baltic pipelines were withdrawn, but one of the remaining highways remained intact. “Further decisions are required on the fate of this pipeline: it has been built, and if the necessary legal decisions are made by European colleagues regarding its certification and removal of restrictions, Russia could provide appropriate supplies through this gas pipeline in a short time,” Alexander Novak said.

According to Novak, the second line of SP-2, according to preliminary data, is in “proper technical condition and this route can be included in the list of export gas lines from Russia to Europe.

So far, Nord Stream 2, through which gas supplies could have started a year ago, is idle due to Western sanctions. Its route is laid across the Baltic Sea, practically parallel to the route of its “big brother”, Nord Stream 1, and is capable of supplying Europe with 55 billion cubic meters of hydrocarbons annually.

According to Igor Yushkov, a leading expert at the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund, Gazprom is confident that it will pump out gas, launch the devices necessary to identify faulty transport sections, and be able to resume fuel exports to Europe at any time – diagnostics, start-up prevention and filling the pipeline with buffer gas will take no more than a week. “If it is proved that the pipe is in order, then technological obstacles should not arise: Nord Stream 1, the suspension of which was associated with problems in the supply of pumping turbines from Canada and Germany, can be launched at any time,” the analyst hopes. .

Investment strategist of Arikapital Management Company Sergey Suverov is not so optimistic. “For any repair work, even for divers to dive there, permission from Denmark will still be required, because the pipe runs in Danish waters. Copenhagen, whose authorities are conducting their own investigation into the incident, will certainly interfere with research and repair work on the part of Russia. The same can be done by Finland and Sweden, through whose internal waters the Russian gas pipeline is laid. The connection of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to European distribution networks will depend on the certification of the Russian pipeline by Brussels.”

The expert recalls that the paperwork process was suspended this spring – its resumption depends on sanctions restrictions imposed by the EU on the supply of Russian hydrocarbons.

“Europe is unlikely to completely cancel its claims,” Igor Yushkov believes. – However, various additions and changes to the current documents may follow, which will create a loophole in the general prohibiting verdicts against Russia. The United States continues to convince European partners of its ability to fill the continent’s market with its own hydrocarbons, but the Americans themselves do not have enough raw materials to reduce gas station tariffs. The likelihood that Brussels will allow the partial launch of Nord Stream 2 is growing every day. True, recently Europeans prefer to be guided not by economic, but by geopolitical motives. No one will be surprised if it soon becomes known that the last line of Nord Stream 2 will also be damaged. In this case, the EU countries will have no choice – they will have to buy liquefied gas from America.