What threatens the new recycling fee rates: two main risks are named

“Everything related to transport will become more expensive”

From October 1, recycling tax rates on new imported cars - cars, trucks and commercial vehicles - have been increased by 70-85%. This is a lot. According to experts, it is not so much the measure itself that can create problems, but rather the parameters contained in it. There are, in fact, two main long-term risks: firstly, for Russians the availability of products from the “friendly” Chinese automobile industry will sharply decrease, and secondly, inflation, which the monetary authorities have been fighting for a long time, will be spurred by an additional powerful factor.

From October 1, the fee for new foreign cars with engines with a displacement of 1-2 liters will increase from 300.6 thousand to 556 thousand rubles; with engines of two and three liters - up to 1.6-2.3 million rubles, that is, immediately one and a half times, depending on the exact volume in cubic centimeters. The recycling collection will increase annually until 2030. For example, in six years the tariff will actually become prohibitive for the most massive segment of the market, cars with 1-2 liter engines. When importing a foreign car into the country, you will have to pay 1.12 million rubles, in addition to other customs duties.

Let us recall that the recycling fee was first introduced in 2009 as a tool to protect domestic automakers from the import of used foreign cars. It was revised from time to time, but the X-hour for the market came in August 2023, when Russian car factories lobbied for a multiple increase in “scrap” through annual indexation, complaining about the unbridled expansion of Chinese car companies in the Russian Federation. Today, their statement says that the measure “will be a significant incentive for foreign brands to invest in production projects in our country, to localize their suppliers...” Meanwhile, as life shows, foreign (read: Chinese) business is not interested in localization, rather, he is inclined to simply raise prices for his products for Russians.

“Increasing the recycling fee for imported cars will spur consumer interest in new domestic cars and second-hand foreign cars that no longer need to be imported into the country,” says Oleg Kalmanovich, chief analyst at Neomarkets. - At the same time, it will inspire shuttle traders and resellers. A high fee is fraught with an increase in prices for foreign cars - this is the number one risk. At the same time, the lack of an alternative in the form of affordable new cars will allow Russian manufacturers to also increase prices.”

According to the head of the customer support and sales department at Alfa-Forex, Alexander Shneiderman, the effect of the increased fee will apply not only to private car owners. Companies that buy machines for production needs will face a one-time price increase and an increase in production costs. The importance of this factor will increase given the rising prices of auto fuel at gas stations.

“In addition,” the expert continues, “on average, logistics services will rise in price by 10-20%, and costs for farmers will increase by 10-30% (depending on equipment wear and tear). There may be a short-term shortage of special equipment for business and urban households, which they will try to fill with products from domestic enterprises or friendly countries, in particular Belarus.”

Another possible consequence: Russians will lose interest in car loans, which have been one of the drivers of the economy in the last year or two. Remembering the turning point date of October 1, 2024, people took out loans and bought cars as actively as possible in advance, says Alexei Zubets, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Well, now, given the inevitable rise in price of cars - both imported and Russian - consumer demand will probably fall. This will become an additional factor slowing down the economy. It is clear that the government has its own tasks: first of all, it wants to increase budget revenues by about 400 billion rubles per year and give impetus to the development of the national automobile industry, forcing foreigners to localize production in the Russian Federation. It is clear that the Chinese will suffer along with everyone else: they will also have to pay recycling fees at new rates and, accordingly, raise prices. Well, the domestic vehicle fleet will age and exist mainly due to the secondary market.

“Increasing the recycling fee on such an important consumer product as cars will accelerate inflation. This is the most obvious macroeconomic effect, says Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. - After all, all goods and services related to transport, transportation (taxi, car sharing), and the activities of small businesses in this area will become more expensive. Inflation already has a long-standing and stable upward trend, and we are creating an additional pro-inflationary factor, and a very powerful one at that. And the really bad thing is that recycling collection rates have increased by 70-85%: such a radical step serves as a bad example for other producers - in industry, in agriculture. There is a temptation to increase the price of any product by tens of percent at once, rather than stretch out the process over time.”